Why a Sound Market Narrative Can Still Lead to Losses
Even if your market prediction is correct, you may still lose money if prices already reflect the anticipated move. Understanding what is priced in is crucial.
The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion in 20-year bonds at a high yield of 5.469%, with a tail of 0.9 basis points and bid-to-cover of 2.73x.
The 20-year auction details: Jesus Christ.
The WI level at auction time was 5.460%.
The high yield was 5.469%.
At auction time, the WI level stood at 5.460%.
The tail came in at 0.9 basis points, versus the average of 0.2 basis points.
Bid-to-cover ratio was 2.73X, above the 2.62X average.
Direct bidders took 31.6%, compared to the average of 22.9%.
Indirect bidders accounted for 58.2%, below the 65.2% average.
Dealers received 10.3%, versus the 11.9% average.
Auction grade: C.
Overall, the auction was mixed. The Treasury paid 0.9 basis points above the WI yield to place the bonds, a larger concession than the 0.2 basis point average. Indirect demand also came in softer than average. On the positive side, bid-to-cover was stronger, direct bidders increased their participation, and dealers took less supply than usual. These demand measures help offset the weaker pricing, but the larger tail prevents an above-average grade.
Generally, the 20-year issue is not a strong part of the yield curve. With the 20-year yield at 5.469% higher than the 30-year at 5.4133% and the 10-year at 5.106%, it points to less overall demand from investors. In a normal positively sloped yield curve, like the current one, the 20-year yield should be lower than the 30-year but higher than the 10-year.
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
Even if your market prediction is correct, you may still lose money if prices already reflect the anticipated move. Understanding what is priced in is crucial.
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