AI Is at 1997 Stage, Not 1999, Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee; Peak Could Come in 2033

The AI bubble still has years to run, according to Tom Lee, co-founder of research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors. He sees AI spending at $30 trillion, on par with the 1990s internet buildout, and expects a peak near 2033.

Speaking at TOKEN2049 Singapore, Lee was onstage while Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, described AI as a classic bubble. Lee's response is that nearly everyone calling it a bubble is itself a reason to doubt the call.

What Makes Tom Lee Think the AI Bubble Tops Out in 2033?

Lee maintains that many current fund managers were not running money through the dot-com bubble or the 2008 financial crisis.

“I’ve never seen a bubble when everyone thinks it’s a bubble.”

Cost is the anchor. In 2026 dollars, Lee calculates the buildout covering the internet, mobile networks and handsets at roughly $35 trillion, and he estimates AI infrastructure outlays at around $30 trillion.

A contrasting figure comes from McKinsey, which said in April 2025 that AI data centers would require $5.2 trillion in investment by 2030.

Cisco, Lee observes, did not form its peak until March 2000 and had already fallen by half twice. From that top, the stock later lost nearly 90%.

Using that scale, Lee puts AI in 1997. He says wireless grew exponentially for a quarter of a century, with its stocks peaking after 10 years, and that math gets him to 2033.

Each year, about $7 trillion in new liquid assets arrives, Lee adds, and he says that pool can finance AI spending.

How Does Debt Change the Arithmetic for AI Investors?

Debt is at the centre of Dalio's AI bubble warning. Rising rates, he argues, prompt holders of paper profits to cash out, and such selling is what usually pops a bubble.

Dalio believes markets are near that point. On October 13, unease about AI had already hit Asia, with an equity selloff across the region erasing more than $800 billion.

The two outlooks differ over financing. Lee frames AI spending as early-cycle investment; Dalio sees debt steering markets toward a bubble bursting. Both rely on the same spending and on whether cash flow or credit covers it.