Altcoin Buyers Face Losses as Speculative Surge Subsides

By late October, most altcoins had recent buyers selling at a loss, according to Glassnode data. This came after a surge in altcoin trading volume that approached four times Bitcoin's (BTC) volume near the September price peak.

Glassnode lead analyst AntiFragile reported the ratio stood around 3x by the end of October. The cooldown brought losses as Bitcoin dropped roughly 11% from its September high of $87,100 to November 3.

Where Did Altcoin Speculation Leave Recent Buyers?

Glassnode defines recent buyers as short-term holders — anyone who acquired coins less than 155 days ago. Around 80% of the more than 300 tokens it monitors had these holders selling at a profit in late September.

Altcoin trading volume has returned to normal levels.

Through September, total altcoin volume spiked up to 4x Bitcoin's, marking a period of altcoin froth.

As is often the case, this speculative alt activity coincided with the local market top, with bitcoin:native peaking…

By late October, only about 12% of those tokens still showed profitable selling. The typical token's recent buyers were instead exiting at a small loss, Glassnode data indicates.

Bitcoin closed on November 3 just under its True Market Mean — the average price paid by active investors. Glassnode places that level near $77,700, with the intraday low at $76,100.

Bitcoin also absorbed the October 29 Binance hack, which the exchange valued at $6.3 billion in affected assets. Glassnode recorded a roughly 3% dip in the days after the event.

The altcoin trading cooldown put the Altcoin Season Index at a neutral 51 by October 27. That indicator sets 25 as Bitcoin season and 75 as altcoin season.

Does the September 2025 Precedent Apply Here?

Historically, such spikes have often lined up with local Bitcoin tops, Glassnode noted. The ratio last reached this level in September 2025, just before Bitcoin's October 2025 market top.

Still, a local top is a signal, not a guarantee. Glassnode says a string of daily closes above $85,000 would flip the $84,000 to $85,000 resistance band into support.

Glassnode identifies $73,000 to $76,000 as the support zone. A sustained break below $73,000 would suggest prolonged consolidation, the firm said.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw nearly $1 billion in net outflows in the two weeks through November 2. Glassnode interprets recent trading as crypto-native money rotating positions, with little new capital from traditional investors.