Altcoin Season Index at 39 as Charts and Data Diverge

Altcoin technical patterns appear positive, but capital has not yet moved into the sector. The Altcoin Season Index registered 39 on November 4, well short of the 75 threshold needed to declare an altseason.

Readings for Bitcoin (BTC) dominance and Ethereum (ETH) suggest an altcoin rotation might be brewing, yet market cap data and stablecoin dominance metrics indicate traders remain cautious.

What the Charts Say About an Altcoin Rotation

Bitcoin dominance tracks the proportion of cryptocurrency value held by BTC. Data shared by Ash Crypto indicates the metric was repelled at a downward trendline for a third instance.

BTC Dominance just got rejected for the 3rd time. Altcoin Dominance is holding support at the same time. You already know what comes next.

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) November 3, 2026

BTC dominance was at 60.43% when the rejection occurred. This pattern of repeated rebounds implies Bitcoin has difficulty expanding its market share. In contrast, altcoin dominance is shown retaining a crucial support level.

Ethereum (ETH) has fared better versus Bitcoin. By the end of October, the ETH/BTC cross was trading above a trendline covering several months, despite a red monthly close.

Ash Crypto observed that the pair must still move past a key resistance level to validate the shift. An officially recognized altseason requires a rotation of funds into altcoins, something market data has yet to confirm.

Stablecoin Dominance Rises as Retail Interest Drops

The TOTAL3 metric, representing market capitalization minus Bitcoin and Ethereum, dropped 1.05% on November 4, reaching $734 billion. This index has recorded lower highs since peaking above $850 billion in late September.

Tether (USDT) dominance climbed in the opposite direction, hitting 6.993% on November 4 compared to roughly 6.4% in early October. An increase in stablecoin share often indicates traders converting to cash, although it can also reflect declining altcoin valuations.

Retail curiosity is waning too. Global Google Trends interest for the search "altcoin season" stood at 6 during the week of October 25 to November 1, a 60% decline year-over-year.

Interest hit its zenith in early November 2025, when BeInCrypto observed early altseason indicators. Carl Moon characterized the decrease as a potential lull before an altcoin surge. Market participants commonly interpret such retail disinterest as a contrarian signal.

Three metrics could resolve the discussion. TOTAL3 must maintain the $730 billion area, which served as support in late August and mid-September. USDT dominance has to reject the 7.2% ceiling that held it back in mid-September. The Altcoin Season Index also needs to recover to 50.