AMD set to report with profit forecast up 62.5% and shares under key averages

AMD will post its third-quarter results after the market closes today, with a conference call set for 5 p.m. ET. Forecasters are looking for solid growth in both revenue and profit.

• Adjusted EPS: $1.95 forecast, compared with $1.20 a year earlier — a 62.5% increase.
• Revenue: $13.10 billion anticipated, against $9.246 billion a year ago, a rise of 41.7%.

Expectations are elevated going into the release. Listen on the call for what management says about demand for its Instinct AI accelerators and EPYC server processors, and for how that demand feeds through to fourth-quarter revenue and margins.

The shares have gained 127.6% so far this year. So how far are they from the peak?

AMD finished 2025 at $214.16. At $487.40 ahead of the results, it has added $273.24, or 127.6%, year to date. The annual high of $658.52 was posted on October 6, only a month ago. Climbing back to that level from $487.40 would take a gain of $171.12, or 35.1%.

To the upside, the moving averages offer the first gauge

A more plausible initial target of note is the 100-day moving average at $529.18, which sits 8.6% above the current $487.40. The descending 100-hour moving average at $534.04 lies 9.6% above the price. Together they hand traders a clear resistance band to work against. Clearing the 100-day MA would be buyers' first step; clearing both and holding there would ease some of the downside pressure and leave buyers more room to push, assuming the macro backdrop cooperates.

To the downside, keep an eye on the $438.38 swing level

The first level on the downside is the $438.38 swing low (the June and September trough), 10.1% under current prices. Should it break, traders would set their sights on $422.84 — the 50% midpoint of the advance off the March (and 2026) low, 3.2% beneath the current price. Further down, the 200-day moving average at $412.96 is the next objective, 15.3% lower.

The reaction to the results will frame the next test. On a rally, the question is whether buyers can push above $529.18–$534.04 and stay there; the stock last traded above that zone a mere 3 days ago.

If the shares sell off instead, $438.38 is the first place where buyers could try to brake the decline. That level was touched on September 2nd.

So what is the options market pricing in?

Options imply a move of roughly 8% in AMD once the results land. Measured from $487.40, that brackets the range at about $448 to $526. The upper end sits just shy of the 100-day moving average at $529.18, with the 100-hour moving average at $534.04 overhead. On the downside, the $438.38 swing level is some 10.1% away, so testing it would require a bigger move than options currently imply.

AMD has already logged 14 moves of 8% or more in 2026. Through the November 3 close, it rose at least 8% on nine sessions and dropped at least 8% on five, measured close to close — 14 of 211 sessions, or roughly one in every 15 trading days. Counting 5% days, 49 of 211 sessions, or 23.2%, qualify: 29 were gains of 5% or more and 20 were losses of 5% or more.

Strap in.