Anthropic IPO takes center stage for banks as SpaceX gains fade

US lenders are set to post third-quarter numbers this week, coming off a first half fueled by SpaceX. Herman Chan, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, sees Anthropic’s anticipated initial public offering (IPO) giving major banks a lift in the final three months.

Even so, Chan argues, delayed listings and a rally driven by AI have made markets more fragile than the record highs on the indexes imply.

SpaceX’s Lift to Bank Revenue

In a Bloomberg interview, Chan characterized the opening half as solid and the second as less clear. Among the lenders set to report are Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

At Morgan Stanley, the scale is clear: the bank served as a lead underwriter on the SpaceX listing. It reported $851 million in equity underwriting revenue for the second quarter, compared with $500 million in the same period a year earlier. That line of work generates fees by assisting companies in selling shares.

Morgan Stanley’s wealth arm, meanwhile, pulled in a record $148 billion in net new assets, which represents added client money. Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said IPO-related flows accounted for more than half of that total.

Chan sees wealth management remaining a bright spot as fresh net inflows continue. Investment banking and trading, by contrast, could be more volatile.

Separately, data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) show global investment banking fees dropped 19% versus the second quarter. For the first nine months, however, fees are still 12% higher.

What Makes Up the Shortfall If Anthropic Stumbles?

Chan believes an Anthropic IPO in the fourth quarter will support Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Bloomberg reported in June that those two banks secured lead roles, with JPMorgan also participating.

But last Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 lost more than 300 points following a report of weaker OpenAI revenue. According to the Financial Times, the discrepancy stems from the way OpenAI and Anthropic account for sales through cloud partners.

Banks also put together bonds and securitizations — debt bundles sold to investors — that finance data center construction, Chan says. As a result, a slowdown in AI spending could reduce that stream of fees.

Chan attributes the recent softening in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley share prices to those concerns.

Credit quality is still very solid, so investors will be watching for the first hints of deterioration. Because Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are leading the Anthropic deal, a single postponement could hurt fee income at both.