ARK's $4,400 Tesla Target for 2031 Hinges on Robotaxis

Tesla shares have dropped 18.16% since January 1, yet ARK Invest’s model implies a price near $4,400 each in 2031. That would be roughly 12 times the October 19 closing level of $368.06.

In ARK’s base case, about 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise value is tied to one activity outside car sales. The firm also projects Tesla selling 10.2 million vehicles in 2031, against 1.6 million in 2025.

The Business Behind ARK’s Forecast

Robotaxis — Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing service — are that business, the updated ARK model says.

Under the base case, around 8.1 million robotaxis produce $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue in 2031. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, contributes $212 billion from roughly 1 million units sold to outside customers.

The model now includes a separate artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure line tied to Optimus performance. Tesla’s cumulative AI infrastructure spending is expected to hit $225 billion by 2031, versus about $7 billion at the end of 2025.

Total revenue is seen reaching $1.45 trillion in 2031 under the same scenario. These numbers refresh the Tesla model ARK last published in 2024.

“ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024. The primary reason is that we believe Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) is likely to inflect as robotaxis continue to proliferate,” wrote ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire.

How ARK’s Earlier Tesla Call Has Held Up

ARK’s 2024 model called for Tesla at $2,600 a share in 2029 and flagged 2025 as the likely launch year for robotaxis.

Tesla began its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 and has now extended it to 7 cities across 3 states. Its fleet has covered more than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles over about 7 months.

Even so, ARK views the robotaxi ramp-up as slower than anticipated. That measured pace helped shape ARK’s choice of around 2031 as the point where Optimus could reach human-level performance.

Hurdles on the Road to a $4,400 Tesla Share Price

ARK identifies a robotaxi rollout that lags forecasts as the biggest risk to its projections. It lists four possible causes.

• Regulatory delays, although ARK says that concern is moderating as robotaxis become safer than human-driven cars
• A sudden exit by Elon Musk
• A natural disaster
• A pandemic

On timing, Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. sees robotaxis reaching additional cities in early to mid-2027. He expects Optimus to follow later that year.

ARK’s disclosure notes that the forecasts lean positive and that some or all outcomes could end up materially lower.

Tesla posts third-quarter results on October 21. Analysts followed by Nasdaq predict earnings of $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 a year earlier. Investors can also listen to the call for robotaxi expansion, Optimus timing and AI spending — the factors underpinning ARK’s model.