Asia-Pacific markets: Warsh keeps rate plans to himself

In brief:

• In an interview with Newsmax, Trump ruled out nuclear weapons against Iran and US ground troops, while acknowledging a possible strike on Pickaxe Mountain.
• Unverified reports pointed to possible anti-ship missile and drone launches toward UAE port anchorages or nearby areas around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Crude edged down, gold gained around $25 and the dollar softened in the run-up to Warsh's remarks.
• Fed Chair Warsh would not commit on meetings for the rest of 2026 and called October and December the decisive moments.
• Cleveland Fed's Hammack cautioned that an inflationary mindset could require stronger action; BoE's Bailey said second-round effects remain subdued for now.
• Moody's cut Nike's outlook to negative, Tesla unveiled a Roadster set for 2028 production, and Singapore's non-oil exports climbed roughly 68%.

Geopolitics and crude

US President Donald Trump told Newsmax that nuclear weapons would not be used against Iran and that he does not foresee American ground troops entering the country. He did add that the US might have to hit Pickaxe Mountain, an underground facility close to Natanz tied to Iran's nuclear programme. These remarks largely repeated earlier stances; last week Trump said the US would not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections.

In a separate development, there were unverified reports of possible anti-ship ballistic missile, anti-ship cruise missile and drone launches aimed at port anchorages at Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah or Jebel Ali in the UAE, or adjacent parts of the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, those reports had not been confirmed.

Oil prices were only a little lower across the session.

Currencies and gold

Gold was roughly $25 higher. Ahead of the festive season, several large Indian mutual funds — Kotak, UTI and HDFC among them — stopped accepting bulk gold ETF subscriptions, reportedly following a nudge from SEBI. That removes a seasonal pillar of support for gold at a time when India is trying to shield the rupee.

The US dollar slipped marginally ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Monetary policy

Warsh offered no signal on the Fed's next move, saying it is not his practice to say what he might do at meetings for the rest of 2026. At an IMF session in Bangkok, he said the global picture has broadly aligned with the Fed's expectations since its September rate hike. He called October and December the moments when output, employment and inflation will crystallise. He also said AI is more likely to boost demand before delivering supply-side gains.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cautioned that households and businesses could develop an inflationary mindset, and if they do the Fed may have to respond more aggressively. She noted significant input cost pressures on businesses and said financial conditions do not look restrictive at present.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the second-round effects of high energy prices have been mild so far, but it is too soon for a firm conclusion. He called UK inflation running above target enormously frustrating and singled out Middle East news as the largest driver of moves in UK government bond yields. Markets have been pricing in a high probability of a BoE rate rise on 5 November.

Corporate news

Moody's shifted its outlook on Nike to negative while affirming the company's A2 rating, saying the turnaround was taking longer than Moody's had expected. The agency projects Nike's revenue and earnings will fall through the fiscal year ending May 2027 and into fiscal 2028.

Tesla has unveiled its long-delayed next-generation Roadster, equipped with thrusters built with SpaceX that allow it to flip and land in mid-air. Reservations call for $50,000 upfront, the price is not yet confirmed, and production is targeted for 2028 — years after initial delivery promises of 2020.

Asia-Pacific data

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports climbed about 68% in September year on year, far above the roughly 32% anticipated in a Reuters poll and marking a sixth consecutive month of growth above 20%. Non-electronics accounted for most of the rise, led by ship and boat structures, but electronics exports also jumped sharply.