August CPI holds at 3.4% annually, matching forecasts

• The prior month's annual increase was 3.4%.
• On an unrounded basis, the previous reading had been +3.365%.
• The month-over-month CPI climbed 0.4%, matching the expected 0.4%.
• The prior month's CPI had risen 0.1%.
• The unrounded monthly CPI figure compared with a prior change of +0.074%.

Core CPI metrics:

• Core CPI on a year-on-year basis rose 2.4%, in line with projections.
• The prior core annual rate was 2.5%.
• Core CPI month-on-month increased 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast.
• The previous monthly core reading was +0.2%.
• The unrounded monthly core change compared with a prior +0.215%.
• Core-CPI services excluding rent and owners' equivalent rent (supercore) recorded a prior monthly increase of 0.189%.
• Core-CPI services excluding shelter registered a prior monthly increase of 0.355%.
• Core goods on a monthly basis recorded a prior increase of 0.2%.

Before the data release, market pricing indicated a 68% probability of a September rate hike and 43.7 basis points of tightening over the year. The dollar-yen pair traded at 154.01 before the report.

Important sub-components:

• Owners' equivalent rent came in at %, compared with a prior increase of 0.3%.
• Rent of primary residence stood at %, versus a prior rise of 0.3%.
• Motor vehicle insurance fell 0.3%, unchanged from the previous month's drop of 0.3%.
• Airfares registered %, against a prior increase of 2.2%.
• Used cars posted %, compared with a prior advance of 0.4%.
• Apparel saw %, versus a prior gain of 0.1%.
• Medical care showed %, compared with a prior increase of 0.4%.
• Lodging away from home recorded %, against a prior decline of 2.8%.
• Energy month-on-month reported %, versus a prior drop of 1.5%.
• Gasoline month-on-month notched %, compared with a prior decrease of 2.9%.
• Food month-on-month increased +%, versus a prior rise of 0.1%.