Bailey: Rate calls to get tougher if Iran conflict drags on

Bailey says rate decisions grow harder the longer the Iran conflict lasts; inflation risks still subdued; four hikes not discussed.

17/09/2026 13:422 min read
  • Inflation risks from the Iran war are still in their early stages; for now, they remain fairly muted
  • Our quantitative tightening strategy has been in the works since before the Iran conflict began
  • Asked about the four rate increases already priced in by markets, he noted that the possibility of raising rates four times was not a topic of discussion

Little insight to glean so far — classic Bailey.

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