Bitcoin bounces off support as oil drop lifts risk appetite; how long will it hold?

Bitcoin clawed back from a major support after oil prices dropped and risk sentiment lifted. The rebound was catalyzed by Trump's decision to waive several Russia sanctions, aiming to reduce fuel shortages and stabilize prices without concessions to Iran.

Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure are likely to keep the risk premium elevated. Hence, absent a Middle East de-escalation, oil prices are not expected to drop much from their peaks.

Consequently, the recent improvement in risk sentiment may be short-lived without additional positive catalysts. The market's attention may have turned to growth fears, making this week's US Flash PMIs the critical data to monitor.

Stronger-than-expected figures could ease growth concerns and buttress Bitcoin in the near term. Conversely, a weak report could amplify worries and weigh on the crypto.

Bitcoin technical review – daily timeframe

Bitcoin could not push below the support zone near 80,000 and bounced back. Buyers are likely to keep entering around that support, with a defined risk below it, aiming for a rally toward 98,000. Sellers, meanwhile, want to see a break lower to target a drop to 75,000.

Bitcoin technical view – 4-hour chart

A minor resistance exists near 84,000. If Bitcoin reaches that point, sellers are expected to step in at the resistance, with defined risk above it, targeting a break below support. Buyers, conversely, are seeking a break higher to extend bullish bets toward 87,400.

Bitcoin technical view – 1-hour chart

Sellers have a better risk-reward setup near the resistance, while buyers need a break to open the door for new highs.

Upcoming catalysts

The latest US jobless claims figures arrive on Thursday, and the Flash US PMIs close the week on Friday.