Bitcoin Rally Driven by On-Chain Activity, Not Leverage: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is trading near $85,000, a zone with a sell wall, while leverage activity is cooling and fresh on-chain capital is entering. This combination, the report suggests, could lead to a move toward $96,700.

Profit-taking is currently significantly above its typical level, according to the same study. The following sections break down the various signals and their implications for reaching the $96,700 target.

What Makes the $85K Bitcoin Sell Wall Significant?

A sell wall represents a concentration of pending sell orders at a specific price level. For the price to advance higher, buyers need to fully absorb this supply.

In its most recent report, Glassnode identified a sell wall between $85,000 and $85,500. At that time, ETF inflows had declined and trading activity was subdued.

bitcoin:native trades near $86k after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close about 2% higher. Derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range and ETF inflows cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot. https://t.co/cNfJRo49ej

— glassnode (@glassnode) October 5, 2026

The week prior, Glassnode identified the next significant resistance level around $96,700, which is the average MVRV price.

MVRV is a metric that compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to the value of coins based on their last transaction price. It serves as an indicator of how holders' positions relate to their cost basis.

The weekly close on October 4 was about 2% higher than the prior week's close, driven by a Sunday rally. In Glassnode's Monday report, Bitcoin's price is now above that level.

Has Leverage Actually Taken a Step Back?

Open interest refers to the total value of all active derivatives contracts. A rapid increase indicates traders are using more borrowed funds to speculate on price directions.

According to Glassnode, futures open interest has returned to within its typical range, close to the upper boundary. Options open interest declined following the quarterly expiration.

Perpetual futures are contracts that never expire. The selling pressure in these contracts lessened after the previous week's price drop.

Despite the easing, Glassnode's off-chain assessment still categorizes futures activity as moderate and increasing. Leverage has simply become less intense, not vanished.

Who Is Buying When ETF Demand Has Slowed?

Traders who execute market orders (spot takers) finished the week as net buyers. The momentum behind this activity has reverted to within its normal range.

Demand from ETFs moderated following the previous week's spike. Weekly net inflows remained positive but were significantly lower, and trading volume was near the lower end of its typical range.

On-chain metrics, in contrast, are showing strength. Active addresses, transaction fees, and transfer volumes have all climbed above their high bands.

Realized capitalization values each coin based on its last transaction price. The monthly change in realized cap remains well above its typical band.

The hot capital share—representing realized cap in recently transacted coins—has risen even further above its band. Separately, blockchain analytics provider Santiment observed that wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC have been accumulating since July.

• Futures open interest: measures value of outstanding futures contracts; reading is back inside range near upper edge
• Options open interest: measures value of outstanding options contracts; dropped after quarterly expiry
• ETF netflow: measures weekly coins entering or leaving funds; positive but far smaller
• Realized cap, monthly change: measures change in coins valued at last-moved prices; far above its band
• Short-term holder unrealized gains: measures paper profit of recent buyers; well above high band
• ETF MVRV: measures fund holders' profit versus cost; above high band

Will Profitable Buyers Drive Bitcoin to $96.7K?

Nearly three-quarters of the circulating supply is currently in profit. On September 30, Glassnode noted that profit-taking was modest.

However, unrealized gains for short-term holders and realized profit-taking are now significantly above their high bands. Short-term holdings, according to Glassnode, are coins that are less than 155 days old.

The supply held by short-term holders has also increased compared to that of long-term holders, now at the upper end of its range.

ETF holders are in a similar situation. The ETF MVRV has risen above its high band, indicating that the average profit for fund holders is above the typical range.

Should recent buyers continue to hold, any advance toward $96,700 would be based on real demand rather than leverage. On the other hand, if they sell when the price meets resistance, that demand could transform into supply through profit-taking.