Bitcoin Shows Bullish Signals After 10-Month Bearish Phase, Analysts Say

Two closely watched indicators turned positive for bitcoin this week, ending a bearish stretch of about 10 months. PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow model, posted the shift and asked whether the reading could really be so simple.

PlanB's skepticism is well-founded. Bitcoin was trading around $81,679, falling 1.7% in the past day and sitting below the $83,094 level.

Are Bull Signals Pointing to a New Bitcoin Cycle?

PlanB shared a chart from analytics platform Block Horizon that tracks bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) momentum. MVRV compares the market cap with the total cost basis of all coins.

In the past, green readings have matched bull markets and red readings have matched bear phases. The oscillator turned green at +0.07 on October 13, following a red period that began in late 2025.

The 2026 bear cycle's trough was around -0.4, which is shallower than the -0.55 lows in 2018 and 2022.

Why a Positive Flip Might Not Guarantee the Bottom

Analyst Quinten Francois responded with another indicator. Bitcoin's weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) rose above zero after 44 consecutive negative weeks.

Except it is https://t.co/Vscqf6MClO

— Quinten (@QuintenFrancois) October 14, 2026

The same flip occurred in both 2019 and 2023, leading to very different outcomes. In 2023, it preceded a rally from roughly $25,000 to above $70,000 within a year.

In 2019, however, bitcoin briefly rose to near $13,800 before sliding under $4,000 by March 2020. The previous month, a separate 50-week moving average signal also flipped after 45 weeks.

Has Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Finally Been Broken?

Eric Crown, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence Expert Council, claims the calendar itself has failed.

There are only 2 scenarios possible now:

1. BTC bottomed in July in which it was ahead of schedule (broken)

2. BTC bottoms anytime after today, in which it was late on its schedule (broken)

Either way, its broken… finally.

Past lows arrived about a year after each cycle peak, pointing to an autumn 2026 bottom. Benjamin Cowen had forecast a cycle bottom in October but admitted in September that his bearish prediction did not materialize.

At the same time, bitcoin fell to $57,800 on July 1, about three months earlier than that timing.

Has the Market Already Priced In the Bull Scenario?

CryptoQuant's Analyst Consensus Index, which aggregates votes from 164 analysts, rose from -18.3 on July 2 to +49.2 by October 13. During that time, the share of bullish forecasts went from 37% to 84%.

Price has not matched that shift. CryptoQuant's data shows bitcoin peaked near $87,000 in late September, and the current price is about 6% below that.

All three areas — on-chain momentum, price momentum, and analyst sentiment — are now aligned. If the halving calendar no longer sets the timeline, bitcoin's next phase may depend on whether that crowded consensus can withstand its first real test.