Bitcoin Surges Past $81,000 as Trump Reportedly Considers Ending Iran Conflict

Bitcoin's price climbed back above $81,000 on Thursday, driven by reports that the Iran conflict might be ending. According to reports, Donald Trump's advisers are urging the president to officially end the war, with midterm election pressures mounting.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he might support keeping rates unchanged in September, adding momentum to Bitcoin's gains.

Bitcoin Gains as Iran Conflict Narrative Changes

The Wall Street Journal disclosed the private discussions on Thursday. Trump reportedly believes that economic pressure on its own will compel Tehran to give in.

Senior advisors, however, cautioned that further escalation might hurt Republicans in the November midterms.

BREAKING: President Trump is having private discussions with senior aides about potentially declaring the Iran War over, per WSJ.

Aides are reportedly advising President Trump that an escalation of the war beyond recent strikes could cost Republicans the midterm elections.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 3, 2026

Bitcoin has been tracking the conflict closely, dropping below $77,000 on Tuesday after Trump confirmed new strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday's rebound therefore aligns with that pattern.

The oil market, however, interpreted the same day quite differently. Brent crude climbed to near $98 a barrel, marking a six-week high rather than a peace rally.

Iran launched strikes on US military bases overnight. Israel also indicated it might resume operations. Trump has publicly stated that the new clashes will not be prolonged. The private discussions echo that sentiment.

Shipping data tells a similar story. Only six commodity tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, compared with a 10-day average of approximately 13.

Six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 a day earlier ‌and well ‌below the ‌10-day average of around 13, preliminary shipping data showed on Thursday.https://t.co/9DYJgjTXzS

— Arab News (@arabnews) September 3, 2026

In the meantime, the Pentagon is reinforcing its position, with army air-defense deployments reportedly extended from nine months to twelve, and some units potentially remaining until 2027.

Waller Provides Additional Support for Bitcoin

Apart from Trump, Fed Governor Waller also influenced markets on Thursday. This comes weeks after policymakers divided nine to three in July, with three members advocating for a rate increase.

Waller noted that three-month core inflation eased to 3.05% through July, down from 4.76% in February. As a result, he favors keeping rates unchanged if August data confirms that direction. A strong inflation reading would change his stance.

"…it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy," read an excerpt in his remarks.

In this context, CME FedWatch placed the probability of a September rate hike at 50.2%, down from 63.2% the previous day and below the unusual hike odds seen in late July.

Will the $80,000 level hold? Recent history suggests caution. Brent crude dropped 9% intraday on August 2 when Trump announced discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

That move, however, reversed quickly. Trump stated that Gulf nations and Iran had requested he postpone a strike, while Iran's Fars news agency rejected the claim.

Oil has since risen back to nearly $98. The conflict is now in its sixth month. Trump has yet to choose a clear strategy. Waller's decision depends on August inflation data. This leaves Bitcoin above $80,000 supported by two uncertainties.

Consequently, fresh strikes or a strong inflation reading could push Bitcoin back toward Thursday's low of $76,963.