Blackstone Warns Anthropic Likely to Get Junk Rating After IPO

The lender that has $9 billion riding on Anthropic has revised its outlook. Blackstone now believes the company behind Claude will receive a junk credit rating following its record IPO, according to a Thursday report from the Financial Times.

Previously, Blackstone had told investors the opposite. It had anticipated an investment-grade rating by the end of the year. That rating determines how affordably Anthropic can borrow for a spending plan estimated at over $800 billion.

Why One Letter Grade Moves Billions

A credit rating functions as a report card for borrowers. A BBB- rating is considered the passing mark. Anything below that threshold is classified as junk.

Numerous pension funds and insurers have restrictions on holding junk-rated debt. Fewer available lenders translates to higher interest costs.

Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) assigned Anthropic a BB+ in June, one notch below investment grade. Blackstone now anticipates a BB-range rating from the major agencies, based on their feedback, the Times reported.

$ANT – ANTHROPIC FACES JUNK CREDIT RATING RISK DESPITE PLANNED MEGA-IPO

Blackstone has warned investors that Anthropic may receive a below-investment-grade credit rating following its IPO, reversing earlier expectations, according to the Financial Times.

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Who Is Holding the Risk?

The answer lies within Project North Star, Anthropic's $63 billion chip financing. More than $42 billion of those loans are backed by a guarantee from Broadcom, an investment-grade chipmaker.

The remaining $18 billion depends solely on Anthropic. Blackstone funds took approximately $9 billion of that portion, at yields exceeding 10%.

Can $112 Billion in Cash Fix the Problem?

Anthropic holds over $112 billion in cash. Investors expect the IPO to raise roughly $100 billion more. Its prospectus describes the compute plan as "bold but sane," per the FT.

SpaceX achieved investment-grade ratings from all three major agencies days after its June IPO. In September, agencies still viewed Anthropic as speculative-grade, even as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advocated for investment-grade status.

Fitch, Moody's, and S&P have not yet issued their verdicts. Their decisions after the Nasdaq debut, expected by late November, will determine what Anthropic pays to borrow for its expansion.