BoJ September minutes due Thursday as rate debate continues

The Bank of Japan will publish the full minutes from its September policy meeting on Thursday morning.

The minutes from the September 17-18 meeting are scheduled for release at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on Thursday. They cover what was one of the most significant decisions in the current tightening cycle.

During that meeting, the central bank increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against. That move followed the previous hike by just three months, compared with the six-month gap between earlier increases.

The dissenting votes attracted as much attention as the hike itself. Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato favored keeping the rate at 1%. Asada pointed to core inflation below 2% and questioned whether the economy was strong enough to absorb another increase. Sato later said she voted against because consumption lacked momentum and underlying inflation was not picking up pace. Their dissents caused the yen to fall as markets interpreted them as indicating resistance to further rate increases.

The minutes are expected to provide more detail beyond the Summary of Opinions published on October 1, especially regarding how the majority assessed the pace of tightening now that the rate falls within the BoJ’s estimated range of 1.1% to 2.5% for Japan’s nominal neutral rate. Traders will also seek clues about the upside price risks the bank highlighted in July, when it warned of an inflation overshoot due to surging fuel costs, higher import costs from a weak yen, and robust AI demand.

Since then, some of that discussion has evolved. At its October meeting, the BoJ kept rates at 1.25% by an 8-1 vote, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.5%. Asada and Sato voted with the majority to hold. The bank stated that underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with its price target and increased the pace of its ETF sales, while raising its price outlook for 2027 to 2.6%.

This context makes the September minutes more of a historical record of how the board arrived at the current stance rather than a new signal. Nonetheless, any indication that the majority preferred a faster pace would strengthen speculation about a rate move in December.