BTC Left Behind as Equity Funds Hit Record $266B Inflows, Fed Hike Odds Rise

According to the Kobeissi Letter, worldwide equity funds pulled in a record $266 billion over the span of four weeks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin did not participate in that surge, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December reaching 84.4%.

That influx of capital now runs up against a central bank that traders anticipate will tighten policy. Rising interest rates boost the appeal of Treasuries relative to Bitcoin, which generates no yield, adding another challenge for BTC holders.

Who Is Capturing the Equity Fund Flows?

US equity funds have amassed $2.1 trillion in inflows since 2020, per the Kobeissi Letter. Of that total, $1.5 trillion has come in since the beginning of 2024.

Investor demand for US stocks is unprecedented:

Since 2020, US equity funds have attracted +$2.1 trillion in inflows.

Since the start of 2024 alone, investors have allocated +$1.5 trillion to these funds.

This is 4.5 times the inflows into Emerging Market Asia equity funds,… pic.twitter.com/IcmjH2FwCd

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 10, 2026

By comparison, equity funds focused on emerging markets in Asia drew $470 billion, the same post stated. European equity funds saw $426 billion in net outflows.

Still, the rebound in Asian equities on Monday followed the lead of Wall Street instead of setting the direction.

Last week, global equity funds added $89 billion, of which US funds contributed $32 billion. Consequently, the rolling four-week inflow hit a record $266 billion, according to the post.

What Do 84% Fed Hike Odds Mean for Bitcoin?

The CME Group's FedWatch tool translates futures pricing on the Fed's key rate into implied probabilities. It currently indicates an 84.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase on December 9, while assigning zero probability to a cut.

Nevertheless, on October 28 the Fed kept the target range at 3.75%–4% on a 10-to-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the dissenting officials, both preferring a quarter-point hike at that meeting.

Bitcoin, for its part, underperformed the Nasdaq's recovery on Friday. According to the analysis, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net withdrawals between November 2 and November 6.

Tuesday later in the day brings the release of consumer price index data, which will put those rate bets to the test. After this week's Treasury auctions kicked off with weak demand, a $42 billion sale of 10-year notes is on deck.

However, such concentrated positioning could leave US stocks vulnerable to a more hawkish Fed than markets currently expect. Crypto may also be left exposed if capital continues to pass it over.

A milder CPI report would lower the odds of a hike and undercut that assessment.