Bond market signals end to AI spending spree as yields spike
Bond yields on AI-linked companies spike as spending commitments questioned. US Treasury yields reverse despite hot inflation.
Canadian manufacturing sales rose 1.5% in August, beating expectations, while wholesale trade fell 1.6%, slightly worse than forecast.
Statistics Canada releases two monthly reports tracking activity on the goods-producing side of the economy: the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey. Both first appear as advance "flash" estimates, arriving about three weeks after the close of the reference month. Detailed industry and provincial breakdowns follow a few weeks later in the full releases.
Manufacturing sales capture the value of goods shipped by Canadian factories. Major industries include petroleum and coal products, food, transportation equipment, primary metals, and chemicals. Because the headline is expressed in current dollars, swings in commodity prices—especially refined petroleum and metals—can skew the numbers. Economists and market participants focus on the constant-dollar, or volume, measure, which removes price effects and provides a clearer view of actual output. The report also carries inventories, new orders, and unfilled orders, offering clues about the direction of production.
Wholesale trade measures sales by businesses that buy goods and resell them to retailers, other firms, and institutions. Covered sectors include food and beverages, motor vehicles and parts, machinery and equipment, building materials, and personal and household goods. As with manufacturing, this metric is reviewed in both nominal and volume terms, along with inventories and the inventory-to-sales ratio.
Neither report typically moves the Canadian dollar much on its own, but both contribute directly to monthly GDP estimates, helping economists refine growth projections and the Bank of Canada's outlook. Since the United States remains the top destination for Canadian goods, these data have gained extra significance as a real-time indicator of how trade policy and tariffs are affecting factories and distributors.
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Bond yields on AI-linked companies spike as spending commitments questioned. US Treasury yields reverse despite hot inflation.
US business inventories rose 0.4% in August, in line with forecasts. Retail inventories ex-autos also matched the prior 0.8%.
US retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating the 0.3% estimate, though the control group missed and gasoline accounted for most of the gain.
The Empire State Manufacturing index surged 18 points to 25.5 in October, its highest since December 2021.