Cardano steadies above $0.22 as open interest slide points to further downside risk

Main takeaways

• From $549.14 million to $475.58 million, ADA futures open interest declined, pointing to reduced derivatives exposure.
• Perpetual funding is positive, suggesting a mild bullish lean, so long positions could be vulnerable if prices slide further.
• ADA remains under key moving averages, with $0.1894 emerging as a possible downside target.

Cardano Steadies After a Steep Weekly Drop

On Monday, Cardano managed to stay above $0.2200, with buyers trying to hold the line after last week's slide of roughly 12%.

ADA has dropped more than 10% so far in October, and softer derivatives activity and tepid large-holder positioning point to limited confidence in any bounce.

The daily chart is still strained following last week's loss of trendline support around $0.2321. Because the token remains below its major moving averages, sellers keep the near-term edge.

According to CoinGlass data, Cardano futures open interest slipped to $465.87 million on Monday from $549.14 million a week earlier.

That amounts to a roughly 14.5% decline in the notional value of outstanding contracts.

The drop indicates lower derivatives exposure, although it does not confirm that retail traders are the only ones leaving. A decline in ADA's price can lower dollar-denominated open interest, and closures of positions or liquidations can also be factors.

Funding stayed positive at 0.0032%, so long holders were compensating shorts in the monitored perpetual market.

This small positive rate hints that certain traders are still betting on a rebound. Yet funding by itself does not show that leverage is unusually high.

Still, another leg lower could squeeze fragile longs and set off more forced selling.

On-chain data points to large holders having made only slight changes to their exposure.

Santiment data puts wallets with more than 100 million ADA at 15.99% of circulating supply, a touch above last week's 15.95%.

Meanwhile, the 10 million-to-100 million ADA cohort accounted for 38.11% of supply, versus 38.27% before.

These contrasting moves show a mixed picture, not a clean accumulation trend. Alone, they also fail to reveal whether tokens were sold, sent between wallets, or shifted among holder categories.

Along with weaker futures exposure, the numbers provide scant evidence that buying conviction has returned.

Technical View for Cardano Still Leans Bearish

ADA is still trading under its 50-day exponential moving average near $0.2290 and its 200-day EMA around $0.2395.

Having lost trendline support near $0.2321, the chart looks weaker, with several obstacles now above the price.

Momentum indicators back the bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence stays below zero with a negative histogram, while the Relative Strength Index is around 41.

That RSI figure suggests sellers are still in command, even though ADA has not touched the standard oversold threshold of 30.

Unless price climbs through nearby resistance, the recent steadiness is only a pause within the correction, not proof of a reversal.

If selling picks back up, the psychological $0.20 mark is the first downside reference. Beneath it, the August 30 low close to $0.1894 is the next structural support.

A drop toward that level would imply roughly 14%–15% downside from the present price zone.

To turn higher, buyers must first attack the 50-day EMA at $0.2290. The old trendline support near $0.2321 would be the next barrier, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.2395.

A lasting break above those areas would start to undermine the bearish picture. Until then, ADA stays open to more downside as traders weigh whether buying can firm up around $0.2200.