Cathie Wood: SpaceX's $1.75 Trillion IPO Is Deep Value

Each Starship launch could produce $1 billion in revenue, a projection that would make SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO appear cheap in hindsight, according to Cathie Wood.

The ARK Invest founder tied that figure to Elon Musk's goal of 10,000 flights annually by 2030. Wood's post followed fresh data on Starlink's revenue per unit of launched capacity.

Cathie Wood Views SpaceX IPO as a Deep Value Opportunity

Each Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue. Elon is aiming for 10,000 flights per year, or $10 trillion in Starship revenues, by 2030. If SpaceX achieves this goal, its $1.75 trillion IPO will be considered, in hindsight, a deep value opportunity! https://t.co/sRyaGM9PBK

— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) September 16, 2026

Starlink forms the basis of the calculation. An analyst at ARK Invest estimates Starlink connectivity revenue at roughly $19 million annually per terabit per second (Tbps) of network capacity. A single Starship holds around 61 Tbps, meaning a full payload contributes nearly $1 billion in recurring Starlink revenue, not a one-time launch fee.

At 10,000 launches per year, Starship alone would generate $10 trillion in revenue. Consequently, Wood contends that investors in the $1.75 trillion offering will regard it as deep value in retrospect.

This calculation assumes each flight is loaded with Starlink capacity. However, Musk has positioned the 10,000-flight goal in the context of commercial aviation, which does not produce connectivity revenue.

So far, early investors have seen limited returns. SPCX was priced at $135 in June and ended its first trading day at $161. Since then, the stock has traded below its IPO price for several weeks.

Starship Revenue Calculation Depends on 10,000 Annual Flights

Revenue per Tbps is declining. According to ARK data, it stood at $21 million in 2023, $23 million in 2024, and $19 million in 2025. The analyst notes this decline is anticipated as capacity expands.

As Starlink v3 sats get ready to go: https://t.co/farNQTsImH

— Sam Korus (@skorusARK) September 15, 2026

A larger gap exists in launch frequency. Falcon 9 completed 165 flights last year, whereas Starship has launched only twice since its June listing. Both missions remained suborbital, causing the V3 satellites deployed in July to re-enter and disintegrate within about 20 minutes.

The upcoming mission intends to achieve Earth orbit for the first time and will carry 26 operational V3 satellites. This flight would also mark the first Starship launch to generate commercial revenue.

Wood is not the most optimistic promoter of the stock. Dan Held anticipates that declining launch costs could drive SpaceX toward a $100 trillion valuation in 20 years. Meanwhile, ARK continues to increase its holdings.

Nevertheless, $10 trillion annually would exceed the economic output of all nations except the US and China. At present, the deep-value argument relies on a flight cadence that Starship has not yet achieved.