China jet hopes fade for Boeing as summit nears

For Boeing shares, the biggest risk is now around expectations, as the chief executive had already tempered hopes for a significant order, reducing the chance of a negative surprise. Even confirming part of the 200-plane arrangement could be seen as a mild win, given how much skepticism has been priced in. Airbus maintains its competitive edge in China through its local assembly facility, preserving its market share lead for the moment. The wider implication is that business deals take a back seat to strategic matters in US-China negotiations, meaning investors should not expect order news to drive market moves around the summit.

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Boeing came into this year's China summits aiming for 500 jets and is now trying to secure 200, a sign of how much aircraft orders have fallen down the US-China agenda.

Expectations that China will announce a fresh Boeing order at Thursday's summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are declining, as the US planemaker concentrates on completing a provisional deal for 200 jets struck in May rather than winning a larger new commitment, two sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters. Talks remain fluid.

The provisional May agreement, reached alongside the leaders' earlier meeting in Beijing, brought Boeing back into the picture for Chinese orders after the company had largely been excluded from the market since 2017. Airbus used that stretch to boost its presence in one of the globe's biggest aviation markets, which both manufacturers forecast will require about 9,000 new jets by 2045, more than any other region.

Ambitions had been significantly greater. Before the spring summit, officials and Boeing were negotiating a deal for as many as 500 aircraft. Chief executive Kelly Ortberg called the smaller May agreement an initial tranche and argued that regaining entry to China was the main achievement. Investors and analysts had expected another large order this week, but Ortberg downplayed that possibility last week, and one aerospace consultant said that simply holding onto the 200-plane deal would be a success.

Aircraft are far down the summit's priority list. A China specialist at a Washington think tank said officials are focused on the trade truce, AI protections, Taiwan weapons sales, and deals for soybeans and rare earth elements, adding that new jet orders would be welcomed but are not critical. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the two sides had agreed to extend the trade truce by two months past its November 10 expiration.

Structural issues also work against Boeing. A Singapore-based aviation consultant said Airbus has gained from its final assembly line in Tianjin and from smoother China-Europe ties, while Boeing's diminished standing in the region stems more from its own internal difficulties than from geopolitics.

Signs of progress remain. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Monday that roughly 140 orders are in solid condition, with another 10 being completed, and one source said that details of part of the May deal could be disclosed at the summit if contracts are finished. China had previously sought assurances on access to spare parts, and its commerce ministry said in May that the US had provided supply guarantees for engine parts and components.

Boeing declined to comment beyond Ortberg's earlier statements, while China's commerce ministry, its Washington embassy and the US Trade Representative's office did not reply to requests for comment.