China services PMI in focus for Asia on Thursday

Thursday, September 3, 2026, sees the private-sector services PMI survey from Rating Dog / S&P as the key data release from the Asia timezone.

Here is a recap of this week's China PMI data.

On Monday, the official NBS releases for August were published. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8, compared with 49.2 in July and above the 49.7 consensus. This was the second consecutive month in contraction territory (below 50), but the details were positive: output and new orders both returned to expansion, as did new export orders. Employment remained a weak point, still contracting. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (covering services and construction) stayed unchanged at 49.0, dragged down by a construction slowdown that Beijing partly blamed on extreme weather.

Tuesday brought a more upbeat picture from the private-sector RatingDog Manufacturing PMI. The index rose to 51.5 from 50.9, exceeding the approximately 51 estimate and hitting a two-month high. New orders continued a 15-month growth streak, the longest since 2018, supported by the fastest increase in export orders in six months. The survey tends to focus on smaller, export-focused companies, accounting for the difference from the more state-oriented NBS sample.

Looking ahead to today's release.

The RatingDog Services PMI (previously called Caixin) is released today. With the official non-manufacturing figure weak and construction under pressure, a similarly subdued private services reading is possible, though the RatingDog survey has been stronger than the NBS gauge throughout the year in the export-oriented manufacturing sector.

Considering the AUD angle. The Australian dollar is one of the most direct liquid proxies for China sentiment due to trade ties via iron ore and other commodities. A significant upside surprise today would strengthen the week's theme of robust external demand and should boost AUD, especially AUD/USD and AUD crosses against funding currencies. A downside miss, particularly if services data confirms the NBS weakness, would pressure AUD, as the services sector accounts for most of Chinese GDP and household demand, even if manufacturing remains solid.