Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood Sit 40-56% Off Highs in Stealth Downturn

Shares of Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL) and Robinhood (HOOD) have fallen 40% to 56% from their peak levels. The S&P 500 was hovering close to an all-time high in October, a gap the Kobeissi Letter describes as a stealth bear market.

Ten names have accounted for 70% of the S&P 500's advance since March 30. That narrowing masks pain in other areas, among them crypto-related stocks, whose investors sit on losses that the benchmark's surface reading doesn't reflect.

Why Crypto Stocks Remain in a Stealth Bear Market

Kobeissi counts 20 tech names in bear market territory, with AppLovin at the top, 65% off its high. Coinbase is third, down 56%, followed by Circle at 44% and Robinhood at 40%.

Tech Stocks in Bear Market Territory:

1. AppLovin, $APP: -65%
2. CoreWeave, $CRWV: -57%
3. Coinbase, $COIN: -56%
4. Western Digital, $WDC: -52%
5. Oracle, $ORCL: -50%
6. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -49%
7. Circle, $CRCL: -44%
8. Sandisk, $SNDK: -42%
9. Robinhood, $HOOD: -40%
10.… https://t.co/CuUwtwaw5V

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 29, 2026

Nvidia on its own contributed 13% of the index's gain. Micron and Alphabet, though, also appear among the top contributors even as they remain 24% and 28% beneath their peak levels.

Data from Kobeissi in mid-October indicated that three additional Federal Reserve rate increases were priced in by June 2027. That stands in contrast to the three cuts that markets anticipated at the beginning of 2026.

Circle (CRCL), the issuer of USD Coin (USDC), generates the bulk of its revenue from interest on reserves. The stock dropped about 11% intraday in September in the wake of a Senate vote on the CLARITY Act that stalled the crypto market structure bill.

Robinhood turned in record revenue of $1.4 billion for the third quarter, although diluted EPS was off 16% from a year earlier.

Will Bitcoin Climb Back Above $80,000 Ahead of Coinbase's Earnings?

Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, is having difficulty keeping its advance above $80,000 and continues to fall back through that threshold. A US Treasury bond buyback that hit its $6 billion ceiling on Tuesday did not push the price higher.

Coinbase is due to report third-quarter earnings after Thursday's closing bell. Analysts see revenue around $1.2 billion, which would be down 36% versus a year earlier, and they expect a loss.

Consumer transaction revenue declined 20% year over year to $452 million in the second quarter, and spot trading volume was down 25% compared with the first quarter.

Last month, economist Peter Schiff likened the market's narrow breadth to 1973 and 1999-2000, periods he argued came before 50% declines, according to Stocktwits.

Kobeissi takes the other view, predicting a strong bounce if pressure from energy and interest rates eases. Even then, the rally would rely on breadth expanding past the 10 stocks now lifting the benchmark.