Coinbase rallies past $188 after Wall Street's 30-day crash caution

A Wall Street strategist warned Sunday that stocks could crack within 30 days. By Monday morning, one stock was clearly not listening.

Coinbase (COIN) gained almost 8% and extended the move, hovering around $188.50. In the same window, the fund that tracks America's 500 largest companies was down 0.8%.

The Bear Who Moved the Stock

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, was the source of the warning. In his message to clients, the threat was oil, not artificial intelligence (AI).

“I do think in the next 30 days, if oil goes to $120, $130, $140, that’s a drain on liquidity”

BeInCrypto reported the crash warning on Sunday. A day later, Coinbase brushed it off.

The upward pressure came from Compass Point, a Washington firm that trades on political outcomes. There, analyst Ed Engel raised Coinbase to neutral from sell.

$COIN | Compass Point upgrades Coinbase Global from Sell to Neutral, PT $177

Analyst sees improving crypto-cycle and EBITDA trends, tempered by secular pricing and margin pressure from competition.

— Hardik Shah (@AIStockSavvy) September 14, 2026

The neutral call is not a buy recommendation. Engel's target is $177, and Coinbase opened above it.

The Vote He Expects to Lose

Engel's case centers on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. A Senate vote is set for this week. The legislation would determine which agency is put in charge of policing crypto.

For Coinbase, that is everything. Clear rules would let it introduce new tokens without the threat of a lawsuit. The bill has already slipped once, to September, and this is the last vote before November.

In Engel's forecast, the bill does not pass.

Investors bought anyway on the bearish note, chasing a bill the analyst sees dying this week.

Wall Street Cannot Agree Either

MARA Holdings (MARA) moved in the opposite direction, sliding 2% after a JPMorgan downgrade to underweight tied to its data center venture with Starwood.

Morgan Stanley ran almost identical math in May, and investor relations chief Robert Samuels fired back then.

“If you actually read the note, the math appears incorrect regarding the Starwood JV, even after we provided an illustrative example of how the economics work.”

Morgan Stanley, for its part, is not bearish on Coinbase. The bank began covering the stock on September 10 with a $250 target, comfortably above the $201 consensus among 28 analysts who follow Coinbase.

Targets range from $95 to $330, and Monday's session answered the most bearish voice in the room.