Copper's Record Rally Hinges on US Tariff Decision

Copper set a new record of $14,617 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange during today's trading. The rally stretched into its fourth consecutive session, driven by trader positioning for potential US tariffs on refined copper.

This marks the second straight record high for copper. The metal has risen about 17% so far in 2026, buoyed by near-term supply constraints and consistent industrial demand.

Washington Silence Keeps a Premium on the Price

Last August, a presidential proclamation imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper imports. Refined copper was excluded, with the Commerce Department instructed to re-examine the matter.

The Commerce Department's report was scheduled for June 30. About two months after that deadline, the White House has yet to publish any findings. Nonetheless, traders continue to price in a tariff on refined copper.

Merchants have diverted hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the United States this year to take advantage of higher prices there. This has directly reduced near-term supply available outside the US.

Morgan Stanley now sees the possibility of the first annual decline in global copper mine supply since 2017.

Meanwhile, copper is trading near record highs.

The world is hunting for supply.

We need more mines.

— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph) September 6, 2026

The supply side accounts for the other factor. Aging mines among the world's largest are failing to match demand from data centers, renewable energy, and grid modernization.

According to market analyst Jim Bianco, copper has climbed over 68% since April 2025. That rally began before the recent tariff speculation emerged.

Copper recently surpassed its earlier record from January. It then exceeded $14,600 per ton for the first time. In August, a record was set on Comex when copper traded above $6.71 per pound.

Gold Retreats as Copper Runs

Copper's advance comes as gold experiences a mixed performance. Gold is currently around $4,405 per ounce, about 21.8% below its record of $5,589.38 reached on January 28.

Some market participants interpret the divergence as a shift from defensive assets to industrial ones. Analyst Qmo highlighted the copper-gold ratio, which he noted broke its downward trend for the first time in 2026.

However, the signal is not entirely clear. Gold gained approximately 10% in August, its best monthly performance since January, and is still up roughly 25% over the past twelve months.

The near-term variable thus remains the tariff decision. When it comes, it will determine whether copper's record high is based on policy speculation or the underlying supply deficit.