Lone Pine Capital's AI-Fueled Gains Evaporate in Three Months
Lone Pine Capital's hedge fund lost nearly all of its 44% year-to-date gain as AI stock bets soured.
Moderna is up 663% this year, the S&P 500's best performer, after its cancer vaccine trial with Merck passed a final-stage test.
Artificial-intelligence enthusiasm has powered the market in 2026, yet the S&P 500's top performer year-to-date is no chipmaker. That distinction belongs to a COVID vaccine maker, whose stock closed Friday at $225, up 663% this year.
The top spot is tied to a cancer vaccine trial whose complete findings have not been published. Back in mid-August, Moderna shares were still nearly 90% below their pandemic-era peak.
The company in question is Moderna (MRNA), most famous for its COVID vaccine. Moderna and drugmaker Merck said on August 19 that their experimental cancer vaccine had passed a final-stage trial in patients with skin cancer.
The announcement came after a difficult period. Sales of the COVID vaccine had collapsed, and Moderna eliminated more than 800 jobs last year.
The Inquirer said shares closed 177% higher that day and fell 24% the next. BeInCrypto had already highlighted Moderna's 2026 comeback in June, when the stock was up 125% after a flu vaccine approval.
On Friday, the advance continued, and Moderna rejoined the Nasdaq-100, the index of Nasdaq's biggest non-financial companies.
BREAKING: $MRNA is up +8% today as it joins the Nasdaq-100, and it is now the best performing S&P 500 stock of 2026, up +620%.
$10,000 invested in Moderna at the start of 2026 is now worth over $72,000.— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio), October 9, 2026
Nasdaq said the index is tracked by more than 200 funds holding over $800 billion, so they had to buy the stock.
Also on that day, The New York Times reported a national cancer vaccine push modelled on the COVID effort, expected to launch in December. Moderna ended the session 14% higher.
AI-related stocks are not far off the pace. SanDisk, which sells memory chips to AI data centers, has climbed 566% this year, lifted by demand for AI memory chips. The S&P 500 index is higher by roughly 14%.
So far, Moderna and Merck have only said the vaccine worked, without saying how well. Investors will receive the complete results on October 24 at a major cancer conference in Madrid.
Marco Gerlinger, a professor at Barts Cancer Institute, told the Pharmaceutical Journal: “It provides proof of principle that personalised cancer vaccines work.”
Not everyone is buying into the rally, though. Martin Shkreli, a former drug company executive, thinks the Moderna stock bubble has at most six months before it bursts.
moderna $MRNA is a great short if you can tough it out and wait 6 months
— Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli), October 9, 2026
Moderna's market value now stands at about $89.8 billion, and competitors BioNTech and Genentech are testing a cancer vaccine of their own.
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