Cramer warns Friday jobs data could undo election gains

Equities and cryptocurrency markets rallied after Democrats secured control of Congress. Whether those gains persist is uncertain, and Jim Cramer is flagging a pivotal test coming on Friday.

The CNBC Mad Money host cautioned that the October employment report could erase much of the advance. Crypto traders face identical risk because the numbers will influence Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations.

A Rally That Bet Against the AI Buildout

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 3.03% to 53,356.12, its strongest session since April 2025. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.44% to 25,736.51.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. stocks collectively added roughly $1.2 trillion in market value. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market increased nearly 2%, with all top 10 assets trading higher.

BREAKING: US stocks add +$1.2 trillion in market cap in their first day of trading after the Midterm Elections. pic.twitter.com/nPlyB6EOcV

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 4, 2026

Inside technology, investors bet that stronger resistance to data-center construction would slow the AI buildout and reduce hyperscaler spending. Microsoft rose 6.70%, and Amazon gained 6.58%. Apple jumped 5.54% and hit an all-time high.

Companies that rely on that spending moved in the opposite direction. Nvidia fell 2.76%, while AMD, CoreWeave, Nebius and Iren also came under pressure.

The Numbers the Ballot Could Not Move

Cramer, however, doubts that a single election can reset the forces that drive stock prices.

“I want you to understand that, as important as a midterm election can be, and this one is important, the elections did not upend the business cycle,” he said.

He sided with JPMorgan strategist Michael Cembalest on that point. Cembalest argues that rates, Fed policy, profits and AI borrowing drive markets, and midterms affect none of them.

Rate expectations reflect that view. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, with two officials voting for a hike. After the election, CME FedWatch still put December hike odds at 82%, up from 77.4% a day before.

That leaves labor data as the next big test, and Cramer says it will take over by Friday.

“The midterm results controlled today’s trading, but by Friday we will be talking the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, and we could see a repeal of so much of this move that I hesitate to guess where we go next,” he added.

Economists polled by Reuters expect 65,000 new jobs in October, up from 29,000 in September. They see unemployment holding at 4.2%.

Early data leans toward a stronger print. ADP counted 86,000 private jobs, above the 75,000 forecast, and Vanguard expects 120,000. However, Reuters notes that ADP has been a poor guide to the official figures.

A hot report could firm hike bets and lift Treasury yields, pressuring the tech stocks and crypto that rallied. A soft report could ease hike odds and extend the gains instead.

The report lands Friday morning before the US market opens. BeInCrypto flagged it as one of three tests facing Bitcoin (BTC) this week.