Crude oil rises on fading hopes for quick Iran war resolution

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil built on its previous advance on Wednesday as short-covering persisted following Trump's remarks that dampened prospects for a swift conclusion to the conflict with Iran. Oil prices had been falling steadily in recent weeks amid rising hopes for de-escalation and progress on Saudi Arabian pipeline and export capacity. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Trump reiterated that Washington would reach an agreement with Tehran after the November election.

Traders began adjusting their positions, and crude prices resumed their upward move. Earlier on Thursday, WTI crude saw a significant technical breakout, boosting buying pressure and setting the stage for a return above the $100 mark.

Trump currently faces numerous limitations, making an eventual resolution to the war probable, though the timing remains uncertain. Should markets perceive an earlier conclusion or a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, crude could reverse its gains and resume its downtrend. On the other hand, if conditions stay the same or tensions intensify, WTI would likely remain underpinned and could reach fresh highs.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

Crude oil has climbed back above the key 93.00 area and is continuing to rise. Buyers are expected to enter near these levels, risking below support, aiming for a move to the 105.00 resistance. Sellers, however, will look for a drop back below the 93.00 zone to enter short positions, targeting the lower channel boundary near 85.00.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The price has broken above a descending trendline that had been guiding the bearish move. Buyers are entering on the breakout, looking for a recovery to the 105.00 resistance, while sellers require a drop back below the trendline and the 93.00 area to regain the upper hand and aim for lower levels.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

A minor ascending trendline is currently dictating the bullish tone on the hourly timeframe. On a pullback, buyers are likely to use the trendline as support, risking below it, to continue driving prices higher. Sellers will seek a break below that trendline to enter short positions and target lower levels.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Thursday's agenda includes the Trump-Xi meeting and US weekly jobless claims, though attention will stay on US-Iran relations.