Crude oil stays firm as Middle East tensions persist; key levels to watch

Crude oil continued its upward momentum, hitting fresh highs as the absence of positive developments in the Middle East keeps prices underpinned. Talks between the US and Iran have hit a standstill over the terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington maintains that Tehran must first tackle its nuclear programme, whereas the Iranian side keeps insisting on its own preconditions, notably the removal of the US blockade.

Iran has stepped up its disruptive actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of ships being hit and container vessels sinking after coming into contact with naval mines. Iranian authorities have also indicated they are deploying new methods to target vessels.

At the same time, the fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continues unabated. Houthi strikes have targeted Saudi airports and Aramco facilities, while Saudi forces have responded with attacks on Houthi-held areas in Yemen.

The main catalysts to monitor are any headway in US–Iran negotiations and any easing of the Saudi–Houthi conflict. Trump has said he will not escalate militarily ahead of the US midterm elections, but if that were to change, oil prices could climb substantially.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

Looking at the daily chart, crude oil briefly pushed above the 96.77 mark but then slipped back below it. Sellers stepped in near that level, using a tight stop above it, aiming for a decline back to the channel's lower boundary. Buyers would need a close above 96.77 to open up a path toward the 110.00 resistance next.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, a minor ascending trendline is supporting the bullish momentum. Buyers are likely to keep using that trendline as support, with a defined stop below it, to push prices to new highs. Sellers, meanwhile, will be watching for a break below to trigger a deeper pullback toward the lower channel bound.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1-hour chart, there is little to add as buyers would find a favourable risk-to-reward setup near the trendline, while sellers would need a break to extend the correction. The red lines mark the average daily range for the current session.