Crypto Lobby Says Washington Is Bluffing on CLARITY Act

According to Semafor, Republican senators believe the CLARITY Act will probably collapse when the Senate reconvenes next week. The crypto industry's lobbying group considers that pessimistic outlook a negotiating strategy, not a tally of votes.

The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) is meant to determine which US agency oversees crypto trading. The bill has yet to advance to a full Senate vote. An ethics provision concerning President Donald Trump and his relatives is causing the hold-up.

GOP Senators Put a Date on the Bill's Collapse

South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds informed Semafor that the prospects were grim. Two aides from the Democratic side stated that talks on the ethics clause have seen little progress since July.

"…if there’s no interest in the White House in trying to bridge the gap on the ethics language, it is going to fail," Semafor reported, quoting Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina.

The vote is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, September 15. It requires 60 votes in favor and merely initiates discussion, meaning it cannot alone enact the legislation. According to the White House, President Trump continues to support the bill and has already agreed to broad ethics conditions.

Kansas Senator Roger Marshall noted that his constituents never bring up the legislation with him.

The Democratic side holds a different view. An August Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that a majority of Americans disapproved of the funds the president's relatives received from digital currencies.

Crypto Lobby Views the Skepticism as Posturing

Alexander Grieve, who serves as vice president of government affairs at Paradigm, a crypto investment firm, interprets the negative outlook as performance. He contends that legislators intentionally share gloomy views with journalists to push for last-minute compromises from either the White House or Senate leadership.

"I think anyone who thinks CLARITY passage likelihood is near zero is making the mistake of reading commentary literally from unnamed staffers who aren't in the conversation (or who are trying to shape narrative), or Members positioning in the press to get last-minute priorities…" — Alexander Grieve, September 8, 2026

He points out that bank lobbying and advertising funds continue to flow in anticipation of the vote, which would be unusual expenditure if the bill were dead. He acknowledges that the timeline does present genuine difficulties.

"But this thing is not dead, not by a longshot," Grieve noted.

Market participants align with the senators' view, as Polymarket indicates a roughly 16% probability of passage in 2026, a drop from over 75% earlier this year.

In August, BeInCrypto reported that the bill was expected to fail at the upcoming vote, and that Grayscale researchers believed the industry could progress without fresh laws.

After this, the Senate will be absent for much of October ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. The vote on Tuesday will determine if the ethics dispute was truly a negotiation or merely an obstacle.