CryptoQuant CEO Anticipates Milder Bitcoin Cycle

CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju has shared his expectations for Bitcoin's (BTC) current bull run. He believes the subsequent downturn will also differ from historical patterns.

Ju attributes this outlook to shifts in Bitcoin ownership and the type of capital it is now drawing. His assessment comes as the cryptocurrency trades close to its highest point since January.

On-Chain Data Points to a More Measured Cycle for Ju

Ju projects gains of three to five times in this cycle, rather than another parabolic surge of 10x or more. He expects a more subdued bear market to follow.

He pointed to Bitcoin's expanded market and rising institutional ownership as key factors. Retail speculative money, he noted, drove previous cycles and their 80% declines.

Ju cited on-chain metrics as evidence. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio did not dip below one during this cycle.

“Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater,” he said. “Even the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now.”

Ju also noted an increase in realized capitalization and a halt in selling by original whales. Meanwhile, futures whales accumulated large long positions close to the bottom.

“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money,” he wrote.

Calculating From Bitcoin's June Low

Bitcoin's September rally lends some support to his view. The asset hit $87,395 on September 21, its highest price since late January.

That advance came after Bitcoin's first weekly close above the 50-week moving average since November 2025. Galaxy's Alex Thorn has described reclaiming that average as a strong confirmation of past bear market bottoms.

Prior to that close, Bitcoin had spent 45 consecutive weeks below the average. The low point during that period occurred in late June, when the price dropped to around $58,000.

Bitcoin has since risen roughly 49%, changing hands at $86,380 at the time of writing. From those lows, a threefold gain would come to approximately $174,000, about 38% above the $126,080 record set on October 6, 2025.

A fourfold increase would equal roughly $232,000, while a fivefold rise would be about $290,000. Those figures sit between two predictions from VanEck's Matthew Sigel, who has forecast $100,000 for next year and $500,000 by 2029.