Does the Falling 10-Year Yield Explain Bitcoin's Thursday Bounce?

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed roughly 3% off a Thursday low below $80,000 while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 basis points. The question traders are weighing now: did lower Treasury yields give Bitcoin a lift, or were the two simply moving together?

The rally got underway hours before Treasury carried out a scheduled bond buyback, an exercise the department describes as liquidity support. CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin back above $82,000 by midday in New York.

Does Bitcoin Track the 10-Year Yield?

The 10-year yield sank 0.13 percentage points in early Thursday trading, reaching a low of 5.06%.

CNBC reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks wholesale prices, advanced 1.3% in September — the largest monthly increase since March 2022.

Investors moved out of tech stocks and into bonds as a safer home. US semiconductor names had given up $1.64 trillion across six trading sessions.

Wednesday painted a different picture. The 10-year yield touched 5.33% following the September inflation data, and Bitcoin was down roughly 2% by mid-afternoon.

A 24-hour low of $79,806 arrived on Thursday, just hours after yields started to slide. That aligned with a hefty spot bid sitting near $80,000.

Have Buybacks Affected Bitcoin Before, or Was It a One-Off?

On August 19, Treasury announced plans to at least double its long-bond buyback size; yields declined, and Bitcoin gained about 7% that day.

According to Treasury’s schedule, each operation typically runs from 1:40 to 2:00 p.m. ET.

Six hours after the September 10 operation, CoinGecko showed Bitcoin 1% lower. The following two buybacks were different: Bitcoin traded 0.4% higher after September 24 and 1.3% higher after October 8.

By the time Thursday’s operation accepted $6 billion, Bitcoin had already recovered.

Three examples are far too few to disentangle the yield move from the dollar, tech flows or liquidity. The next test dates are the October 27 buyback and the Treasury refunding on November 4.