Double-digit swings toward Democrats point to a Republican rout

The early stage has passed now that US votes are being counted.

A statistically robust set of districts has reported at this point, and several of them have finished their counts entirely. The tallies are registering a swing of 10 to 35 points in the Democrats' direction. Should even the smallest of those hold, that amounts to an enormous shift toward the party.

By way of example, wagering markets now make Democrats the winners of both the Texas governorship and its Senate seat, pricing a Talarico victory over Paxton at 95%. In KY-06 and IN-05, two races followed closely, the early figures are plain and have Democrats pulling off upsets against Republicans in each. Florida has been less of a rout, yet it too shows a move toward Democrats of roughly 10 points against 2024.

South Carolina is shaping up as another sizeable upset: Lindsay Graham's sister was contesting his seat following his death. Markets now have her going down narrowly, which would place the seat in Democratic hands for the coming 6 years.

Kalshi prices Democratic control of the Senate at 96.8%.

What is left, it appears, is counting the size of the win.

On markets, tech warrants caution, since hostility to data centres was a potent campaign theme, along with opposition to AI more broadly. The tech right climbed into bed with Trump, and a price may now come due. Nowhere is that more visible than in Texas, where a very large number of data centres are on the drawing board. Tesla stock is 3% lower overnight, which looks like a telling spot to watch should the Democrat take the governorship.