Elections, rate decisions, and jobs reports anchor week ahead

Traders have a full slate on next week's calendar. Political uncertainty arrives with the US congressional elections, rate increases are expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England, and Friday brings employment data from both the US and Canada.

At the core of the debate is whether growth, inflation, and jobs make a more restrictive policy stance look justified. The scheduled releases are what will move markets. Once those headlines arrive, technical levels will help set the bias, risk, and targets.

Monday, November 2 brings US manufacturing data and the RBA's rate decision.

Manufacturing from the US comes first, with Australia's central bank taking over late in the North American evening.

• 10:00 AM ET: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 54.7 after 54.5.

• 10:30 PM ET: RBA cash rate decision, forecast 4.85% versus 4.60%.

• 10:30 PM ET: RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement.

• 11:30 PM ET: RBA press conference.

Forecasts put the factory gauge slightly higher, still above 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The prices paid, new orders, and employment details will be watched for hints about inflation and how durable the expansion is.

For AUDUSD, the calendar implies a 25-basis-point RBA move. The reaction will be shaped by both the decision and the guidance that comes with it. Will the bank keep the door open to further tightening, or will it say rates are close to adequate?

Tuesday, November 3 features the US elections, JOLTS data, and New Zealand employment.

Political attention focuses on the US congressional elections, and JOLTS offers another update on labor demand.

• 2:30 AM ET: Swiss CPI, monthly, forecast 0.0% after 0.0%.

• 10:00 AM ET: US JOLTS job openings, forecast 7.11 million versus 7.08 million.

• All day: US congressional elections.

• 11:00 AM ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks.

• 4:45 PM ET: New Zealand employment change, quarterly, forecast 0.4% from 0.5%.

• 4:45 PM ET: New Zealand unemployment rate, forecast 5.5% versus 5.6%.

US elections: control of Congress is the main prize.

Tuesday's vote will decide control of the House and Senate, along with how much room President Trump has to pursue his agenda in the second half of his term.

Senate: the races to monitor include Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, and Michigan. Democrat Jon Ossoff's Georgia seat and Republican Susan Collins' Maine seat are key battlegrounds. Open-seat contests in North Carolina and Michigan give both parties notable chances. New Hampshire's open seat is another race to follow.

House: the majority could be decided by a small number of competitive districts, especially in California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Suburban voters and districts with narrow presidential margins will matter most.

For markets: unified Republican control of both chambers would give the administration more room to push tax, spending, and regulatory changes. Democratic control of either chamber would create divided government and raise the need for negotiation on budgets and major bills. Investors will look for implications for Treasury borrowing, energy, healthcare, and corporate taxes.

How could control of Congress change hands?

Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take both chambers.

In the House, Republicans have a 220–215 majority. A net Democratic gain of three seats would turn that into a 218–217 edge, a slim Democratic majority.

In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53–47 advantage. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to get a 51–49 majority. A three-seat gain would leave the chamber at 50–50, with Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote keeping the GOP in charge.

Net is the key word: any seat lost must be balanced by a pickup somewhere else. To investors, a Democratic takeover of either chamber would mean divided government, making major tax and spending legislation more dependent on negotiation.

New Zealand's report is projected to show slightly slower employment growth and a lower unemployment rate. Wage and participation data will help show whether that indicates a stronger labor market.

Wednesday, November 4 turns the focus to eurozone inflation and US services.

European inflation and the large US services sector take center stage.

• 5:00 AM ET: Eurozone core CPI flash estimate, annual, forecast 2.5% versus 2.5%.

• 5:00 AM ET: Eurozone headline CPI flash estimate, annual, forecast 4.0% after 3.8%.

• 10:00 AM ET: US ISM Services PMI, forecast 54.9 after 54.9.

A rise in eurozone headline inflation, if it comes as expected, would complicate the policy picture even though core inflation is projected to hold.

In the US, a services reading that stays put would still imply ongoing expansion. The breakdown matters: higher prices paid with weaker employment could trigger a much different market response than broad strength in new orders, business activity, and hiring.

Thursday, November 5 brings the BOE decision and Canada's budget.

The BOE leads a busy day that also includes US jobless claims, several central bank speakers, and Canada's annual budget.

• 7:00 AM ET: BOE bank rate decision, forecast 4.00% against 3.75%.

• 7:00 AM ET: BOE MPC vote split, hike–hold–cut, forecast 7–0–2 after 3–0–6.

• 7:00 AM ET: BOE Monetary Policy Report and Policy Summary.

• 7:30 AM ET: BOE Governor Bailey speaks.

• 7:40 AM ET: SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks.

• 8:30 AM ET: US initial unemployment claims, forecast 197,000 after 194,000.

• 10:30 AM ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks.

• 1:00 PM ET: ECB President Lagarde speaks.

• 4:00 PM ET: Canada annual budget release.

The calendar as provided implies a 25-basis-point BOE hike and a sharp shift in the expected vote split. Sterling traders will be watching whether the inflation forecasts and Governor Bailey's comments support more tightening.

Canada's budget gives the CAD a fiscal catalyst, with spending, borrowing, and growth assumptions likely to be examined ahead of Friday's employment report.

Friday, November 6 caps the week with US and Canadian jobs data.

The biggest scheduled data event of the week arrives Friday, with both employment reports out at 8:30 AM ET.

• 8:30 AM ET: US nonfarm payrolls, forecast +63,000 after +29,000.

• 8:30 AM ET: US unemployment rate, forecast 4.2% after 4.2%.

• 8:30 AM ET: US average hourly earnings, monthly, forecast 0.3% versus 0.1%.

• 8:30 AM ET: Canada employment change, forecast +14,500 after −68,300.

• 8:30 AM ET: Canada unemployment rate, forecast 6.5% versus 6.5%.

• 10:00 AM ET: Canada Ivey PMI, forecast 57.7 against 58.2.

• 10:00 AM ET: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, forecast 47.8 after 48.0.

• 10:00 AM ET: Preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations, forecast not listed; previous 4.7%.

• 11:00 AM ET: BOJ Governor Ueda speaks.

• All day: New Zealand parliamentary elections, as listed on the supplied calendar.

US payroll growth is forecast to improve but stay modest, while wage growth is expected to accelerate. Soft hiring combined with firmer wages would leave traders weighing slower growth against lingering inflation. Payroll revisions will also be relevant.

Canada is expected to recover only part of the employment lost last time. With both reports hitting at once, USDCAD could react sharply in the first minutes as traders compare the two economies.

Trading strategy: let the reaction confirm the story.

Expectations have several chances to change over the week. A rate hike can give a currency support, but follow-through depends on what happens next. Stronger employment can push yields higher, while the wage details may alter how investors read the same report.

Watch the initial move, then whether the price holds its break. A sustained break changes the bias; a failed break brings the other side back into play. With elections, central banks, and jobs all competing for attention, defined risk is especially valuable.