Ethereum trades cautiously as macro risks persist, though US-Iran optimism provides support

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Ethereum has seen no major asset-specific drivers this week, though macro events have taken the spotlight. A sharp drop in oil prices before the UN General Assembly had lifted risk appetite, boosting crypto markets on expectations that inflation and rate hike worries would ease.

However, Donald Trump dampened hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, reiterating that a deal would only be pursued after the November elections. Following those comments, oil prices, Treasury yields, and the US dollar resumed their climb, putting pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Optimism made a comeback on Monday after reports that Iran had presented a proposal: it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week, contingent on the US accepting its conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi remains in New York through the weekend, waiting for an American reply.

A deal would be bullish for Ethereum, as aggressive rate hike expectations could recede if inflation fears diminish. Conversely, a drawn-out impasse or renewed tensions would keep financial conditions tight, likely weighing further on the crypto market.

ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

Ethereum has retreated over recent sessions as macro conditions deteriorated. A key upward trendline lies near the 2,560 support level, making that area technically robust. Should price pull back to that support, buyers are expected to enter with a stop below the trendline, aiming for a rally toward 3,000. Sellers, however, will seek a breakdown below the trendline to target a decline to 2,360.

ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

Bearish momentum strengthened after sellers pushed the price below the uptrend line that had been guiding the rally. From a risk-reward standpoint, buyers may find a more favorable entry near the support and the main trendline, still targeting new highs. Sellers, meanwhile, are watching for a break below that level to extend the correction toward 2,360.

ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

A minor resistance zone sits around 2,710. Sellers are likely to defend that area with a stop above resistance, aiming to drive price back toward the 2,560 support. Buyers, in contrast, want to see a break above that resistance to join for a push to new highs.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Nothing is scheduled on the economic calendar today, but traders will keep a close eye on US-Iran developments following the proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions.