European shares end higher; French 10-year yield at highest since 2002

With traders in London and across Europe wrapping up the session, the region's main equity benchmarks were finishing in positive territory. Germany's DAX paced the move higher, while Britain's FTSE 100 trailed the pack yet still managed a small gain.

The final readings for the session were:

• Germany's DAX gained 342.67 points, or 1.35%, to end at 25,647.10.

• France's CAC climbed 83.19 points, or 1.06%, to 7,921.69.

• The UK's FTSE 100 rose 19.88 points, or 0.19%, finishing at 10,752.87.

• Spain's IBEX advanced 231.10 points, or 1.21%, to 19,323.50.

• Italy's FTSE MIB added 572.32 points, or 1.17%, settling at 49,643.68.

A remark from a US official drew attention, with the official saying Russia had accepted Washington's proposal for a three-way meeting with Ukraine. Later reporting indicated the Kremlin had agreed to resume technical-level discussions on or after November 10, possibly in Abu Dhabi. It marks progress, even though a willingness to sit down does not make the hard bargaining that lies ahead any easier.

For market participants, the significance goes further than the headlines about diplomacy. Russia plays a central role in oil, refined fuels, and natural gas. In my view, if progress toward peace is judged credible, Trump could gain more political room to engage with Putin on energy and economic matters. Even so, that room hinges on results. The mere fact of a meeting will not wipe away the political backlash or put an end to the uncertainty over supplies and sanctions.

For that narrative to hold up, the markets require peace. Forward movement could take some of the geopolitical premium out of energy prices and strengthen confidence in future supply. A fresh letdown, by contrast, would leave traders exposed to whatever headline arrives next and the pressure it brings. Crude and European natural gas are still markets worth monitoring closely while the diplomatic track advances.

Zelenskyy, for his part, has been working the diplomatic circuit. During a Tuesday stop in Oslo, he sat down with Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Finland's President Alexander Stubb, and US envoy Steve Witkoff; Jared Kushner took part from a distance. The conversation touched on security guarantees, sanctions, reconstruction, air defense, and the prospect of a meeting between the leaders. Zelenskyy likewise said US early-warning intelligence on Russian missile strikes was functioning again. Ukraine's stance involved backing a mutual stop to strikes on energy infrastructure.

Attention now turns to what comes after these meetings. The flurry of diplomacy gives traders a basis to work with, yet actual commitments — and the willingness of the parties to honour them — will decide how long the optimism holds.

France, in the meantime, stays a sore spot in fixed income. The country's benchmark 10-year yield moved past 5%, its strongest level since 2002, with investors still scrutinizing the nation's fiscal standing. The climb in borrowing costs makes it harder to get the public finances back in order.

According to the afternoon readings provided, the French 10-year yield stood at 5.009%, 6.4 basis points higher. Germany's comparable yield was only 0.4 basis point higher on the day, at 3.421%, leaving the French premium at approximately 159 basis points. The gap itself is the cautionary signal. French equities joined the day's advance, yet the debt market keeps asking for greater compensation to hold French paper.

Elsewhere in Europe, Spain's 10-year yield added 2.5 basis points to reach 4.079%, while Italy's climbed 4.2 basis points to 4.589%. British gilts headed the opposite direction, with the 10-year yield slipping 4.9 basis points to 5.381%.

Across the Atlantic, US equities were also in positive territory as the European session wound down, tech names out front. The most recent broad-market figures show:

• The Dow was up 136.58 points, or 0.26%, at 52,632.46.

• The S&P 500 gained 40.62 points, or 0.53%, to 7,753.19.

• The Nasdaq 100 added 375.15 points, or 1.27%, reaching 29,865.43.

A reading taken a bit earlier put the Nasdaq Composite 296.49 points, or 1.12%, higher at 26,721.31.

Treasury yields presented a mixed picture, the short end a touch firmer and longer tenors weaker. The 2-year yield sat at 4.793%, 0.6 basis point higher; the 5-year was 4.934%, broadly flat; the 10-year 5.109%, off 0.8 basis point; and the 30-year 5.416%, down 1.0 basis point.

The dollar put in a mixed performance in foreign exchange. Europe's single currency eased 0.15% to 1.1219, while the Australian dollar posted the biggest advance against the greenback, AUDUSD up 0.33% at 0.7025. Sterling was slightly firmer at 1.3385 against the dollar, the yen slipped, USDJPY at 158.11, and USDCHF climbed to 0.8252.

Commodities: crude turns back down, moving under $97

Crude has swung sharply lower once again, with market participants digesting the newest diplomatic headlines and what they could mean for energy supply. Having touched $100.40, the price fell to a new session low of $96.63. The drop of $3.77 from the peak breaks the $97 swing level, at least on a technical basis.

The latest quote put the price at approximately $96.83, off $1.34, or 1.36%. Sellers are more firmly in charge now, yet they still have to hold the price under $97. A sustained move below keeps the bearish case in play; a push back above, defended, would mean the sellers took their run at support and could not keep it going.

The diplomatic moves involving Russia, the US, and Ukraine layer another element onto the energy picture, coming alongside the still-active US-Iran talks. If progress toward peace looks credible, worries about supply interruptions could soften. Traders, though, have watched before how fast enthusiasm evaporates once a fresh headline stirs doubt. News gives the push; price levels give traders a way to frame the risk.

In other markets, spot gold was a bit firmer around $4,132.50, ahead $7.04, or 0.17%, while silver declined roughly 0.79% to $57.52. Natural gas sat 0.48% lower near $6.572, and bitcoin climbed about 1.80% to $84,441.

On balance, the bulls in equities hold the stronger hand going into the close. Between France's climbing borrowing costs and the still-unfinished peace talks, there are two narratives that could quickly test that conviction.