Fuel Supply Curbs by China and Russia Could Pressure Bitcoin in October

China has instructed its refiners to halt all fuel exports for October. Russia, on the previous day, prolonged its ban on diesel exports by thirty days. Given existing global oil shortages stemming from the US-Iran conflict, these moves may cause serious economic difficulties.

Reduced fuel availability typically leads to rising inflation and elevated consumer prices. That, in turn, gives the Federal Reserve added justification to raise interest rates on October 28. Could Bitcoin's price also suffer?

China Pauses Fuel Exports After Trump Asked for Help

During Xi Jinping's latest trip to Washington, President Donald Trump reportedly requested that China assist in stabilizing worldwide fuel markets.

Refiners currently lack authorization to export fuel beyond Hong Kong and Macau, according to four individuals familiar with the situation who spoke to Reuters. PetroChina, the state-run oil company, has already canceled a number of October shipments.

BREAKING: Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel exports outside Hong Kong and Macau, per Reuters.

Beijing is protecting its own supplies. PetroChina has already cancelled gasoline and jet-fuel cargoes.

Diesel markets are already tight. This takes more supply away from…

— NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) October 1, 2026

Beijing wants its own tanks refilled first. Commodity data firm Kpler puts China’s diesel stocks about 20 million barrels short of pre-war levels.

“It highlights that the government’s focus remains domestic supply security. International markets are an afterthought,” Reuters reported, citing Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Russia cited strong demand during the harvest season. According to the Moscow Times, Ukrainian drone attacks have impacted over 45% of Russia's refining capacity.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia extended its ban on diesel exports for another month, keeping global fuel supplies tight. The ban, in place since summer, now runs through Oct. 31 and covers diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil. Russia says it needs the fuel domestically, especially for harvest season. https://t.co/5pPzGUzMQr

— NewsForce (@Newsforce) October 1, 2026

Iran appears to be out of the picture as well. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the country loaded no crude oil onto tankers during September.

The claim of zero loadings in September is not definitive, but it has been confirmed by several independent commercial tanker tracking services.

Iran loaded ZERO crude oil onto tankers in September. The Trump Administration is cutting off the Iranian regime’s most critical source of revenue.

Operation Economic Outcast is severing the economic lifelines that have allowed Tehran to finance its terrorist agenda.

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) October 1, 2026

Why the Diesel Squeeze Reaches Bitcoin

The United States is currently putting pressure on its allies. The Trump administration has warned Germany and France that they must release emergency diesel reserves or face a potential US ban on diesel exports.

Trump admin threatens diesel export ban unless Germany, France tap reserves: report https://t.co/HLMdrkEXRO

— New York Post (@nypost) October 1, 2026

The Federal Reserve had already increased rates to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Expectations for further hikes diminished after August figures indicated that US inflation had eased to 3.4%.

According to CME FedWatch data, rate traders currently assign a 26% probability to the Fed raising rates at its October 28 meeting. One week earlier, that likelihood was 68.6%.

Interest rate increases typically boost Treasury yields and strengthen the US dollar. September saw the dollar's best performance since June, a trend that often puts downward pressure on Bitcoin, according to BeInCrypto.

Should fuel costs rise further, prompting another Fed rate hike, the dollar would likely appreciate, and Bitcoin would typically face headwinds.

China's Golden Week holiday concludes on October 7. According to Reuters sources, fuel exports may only restart if inventories are replenished. Regardless, the Fed's next meeting is three weeks after that.