RBA Governor Bullock testimony key as rate hike odds hit 70-75%
RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before parliament as markets assign a 70-75% probability to a rate hike at the September meeting.
Gold rose $81, S&P 500 gained 1.1%, and the dollar lagged as Treasury yields dropped, with mixed economic data.
Market recap:
Stocks and gold reversed the moves seen after the Federal Reserve meeting, as market participants re-evaluated the inflation outlook and shifted their focus. The catalyst was a drop in Treasury yields, which reduced worries about the central bank losing its independence and about runaway inflation. It took time to fully absorb the meeting, but the tail risks now appear to have been removed, or set aside for the moment. The Federal Open Market Committee still has its experienced members, and they voted unanimously despite their differences.
The dollar did not retrace its earlier gains and gave little back during the day. One factor could be money flowing back into technology stocks after a major risk passed. Intel jumped on news of a potential partnership with NK Hynix for US memory chip manufacturing. Generac surged 18%, highlighting an expanding artificial intelligence boom, while Micron also climbed in a return to names that performed well earlier this year.
Part of the improvement was supported by reports that the Trump administration will meet with Gulf countries to try to end the war. In his comments, Trump appeared resigned to some kind of conclusion, though he also spoke about annihilating the regime — something he already attempted in March. The headlines put slight downward pressure on oil, but the days when every statement from Trump on the conflict moved crude by $3-$5 are over. For now, a day of steady oil prices was a positive development.
Economic data showed that housing will struggle with higher rates, providing one reason to think the hiking cycle will be short. However, initial jobless claims remain at extremely low levels, pointing to why the cycle could last.
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RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before parliament as markets assign a 70-75% probability to a rate hike at the September meeting.
The Federal Reserve raised rates, but bitcoin traded higher; Grayscale believes the hike is a mid-cycle adjustment that won't disrupt crypto markets.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25% at today's meeting, with attention on Ueda's guidance and the yen's reaction.
Japan's August CPI data is due as the BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 1.25%, with swaps pricing a near-certain hike.