Goldman: Persian Gulf crude exports rebound to 2025 norm after September surge

Goldman's assessment bolsters the narrative of recovering supply, a factor that weighed on Brent, which slid roughly 2.5% to near $103 on Tuesday, while WTI stayed under $90 on Wednesday and is still slated for a third consecutive monthly rise. The bank noted in a late-August memo that increased dark flows could cap crude's upside even if Middle East turmoil extends, and the newest data reinforces that outlook. That same memo argued refined fuels and European gas offered more room to gain than crude in a sustained disruption, a view that aligns with current attention on diesel. The key threat to the recovery narrative is diplomatic, with US-Iran negotiations stalled and signs Washington might resume large-scale fighting after the midterms, leaving a tail risk embedded in prices.

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Goldman's projection that Gulf oil exports have returned to their 2025 average—with Saudi Arabia driving the increase and Iran exporting no crude by sea—supports the supply-recovery trend now pressuring crude.

Summary:

• Goldman Sachs calculates that Persian Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, have rebounded to their 2025 average after doubling in September.
• Saudi shipments spearheaded the rebound, exceeding their 2025 average, while Iran had no seaborne crude exports in September.
• Dark exports are oil carried by tankers that disable their satellite transponders, complicating tracking.
• In a late-August report, Goldman had estimated exports at roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, climbing from a low of around 5 million to 6 million barrels daily in March.
• Brent settled Tuesday down about 2.5% at roughly $103, with WTI near $89, and both benchmarks still poised for monthly gains.
• The context includes Saudi Arabia restarting loadings at Yanbu, a US proposal of up to 40 million barrels from its strategic reserve, and halted US-Iran talks.

Goldman Sachs projects that oil exports from the Persian Gulf, counting so-called dark exports, have climbed back to their 2025 average following a doubling in September. The bank attributed the rebound largely to Saudi shipments, which exceeded their 2025 average, while Iran recorded no seaborne crude exports during the month. This assessment adds fresh weight to the supply-recovery narrative now shaping the oil market.

Dark exports are loads transported by tankers that switch off their satellite signals, making flows through the Strait of Hormuz harder to gauge. Goldman has contended that the uptick in such passages, along with more ship-to-ship transfers, signals producers and shippers adjusting to the conflict. In a late-August note, the bank had estimated regional exports of crude and refined products had recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, reaching 15 million to 16 million barrels per day—far above the March trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels daily, though still 7 million to 8 million below pre-war figures. It said at that point that heightened dark flows could temper crude price gains even if disruptions persist.

The newest figures align with other signs of a comeback. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu after bringing the East-West Pipeline back online, according to Reuters, and Kpler data showed Middle East producer crude exports recovering in September to about 16 million barrels per day, the strongest since the conflict began in late February. Brent settled down roughly 2.5% near $103 a barrel on Tuesday, with WTI closing around $89, though Brent is still heading for a double-digit monthly advance. The US Department of Energy also offered as much as 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Goldman offered no explanation for Iran's lack of seaborne crude exports. The US naval blockade is a central element of Iran's position in the stalled diplomacy, per Axios, which noted Qatari mediation this week achieved little and that US officials believe President Donald Trump could direct a return to major combat after the midterms. Trump has stated he offered Iran nothing to conclude the war.

The recovery narrative thus represents just one side of the equation. Traders will monitor whether exports continue climbing, whether Iran's absence persists, and whether a collapse in negotiations revives supply-disruption risk in pricing. Refined products like diesel also remain in focus, with the White House pressing the European Union to tap its diesel emergency reserves to reduce global prices.