Goldman says Gulf oil exports have recovered to 22-23 mb/d but Dated Brent remains elevated

The main tension in the oil market right now is between rising supply volumes and stubbornly high spot prices. Even though crude flows are recovering, which should push benchmarks lower over time, the premium in the physical Dated Brent market indicates that buyers are still willing to pay extra for prompt cargoes as they rebuild low inventories. That keeps the front of the futures curve in steep backwardation. Refined products remain the tightest corner, keeping diesel and jet fuel margins supported even as crude supply normalises. The weekend’s Houthi claims against Saudi Aramco facilities present an immediate test, because Saudi barrels have been leading the recovery. Any verified disruption would probably widen the physical premium again.

The barrels have returned, but the fear has not: Gulf exports have normalised but physical buyers are still paying war-level prices.

Summary

• Goldman Sachs estimates that Persian Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, recovered to 22-23 mb/d over the past two weeks, broadly matching their 2025 average.
• Despite that recovery, physical Dated Brent prices remain very high.
• Crude has driven the rebound, with Saudi Arabia leading and no seaborne crude exports from Iran observed in September.
• JPMorgan’s estimate is more conservative, at roughly 89% of 2025 levels, mainly because of differences in counting dark flows.
• Exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are still about half of normal levels.
• Goldman still expects Brent to ease to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027.

Goldman Sachs says oil exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to roughly normal, but physical crude prices have not followed yet. The bank estimates that Gulf exports, including so-called dark exports, recovered to 22 to 23 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, broadly in line with their 2025 average. Meanwhile, physical Dated Brent remains very high.

Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that disable their satellite transponders, making tracking difficult. Goldman estimated these flows at roughly 5 million barrels per day in September, a major reason its count is higher than others. JPMorgan, using a more conservative method, put recent Gulf exports at about 89% of 2025 levels, with most of the difference stemming from how much of the dark fleet is counted.

The recovery has been led by crude rather than refined products. In late September, Goldman said crude exports had risen above their 2025 average, with Saudi shipments more than doubling in the month to nearly 12 million barrels per day, and the UAE also exporting above normal. Satellite data showed no seaborne crude exports from Iran. Products are lagging badly: exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain around half of normal. Goldman attributes this to elevated regional refinery outages and the higher risk faced by smaller product tankers carrying more flammable cargo.

Physical prices tell a different story than the flow data. Dated Brent, the price for North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, was recently near $120 a barrel, well above futures. Goldman links that gap to fears that escalation could damage long-term production, and to record-low global stocks outside OECD commercial inventories, which have pushed buyers to replenish supplies quickly. The bank estimates the risk premium in Brent spreads averaged $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record and above the peak during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.

Goldman maintains its base case that Brent eases to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027, while warning that renewed escalation could push prices sharply higher. The weekend’s Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities put that risk directly against the barrels that have driven the recovery.

Dated Brent is the spot price for physical North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, as opposed to the front-month futures contract. In early April, the spot premium over futures exceeded $25 a barrel. Normally that spread is narrow.