Goldman Strategist Maintains 12,000 KOSPI Target Despite 74% Gap to Current Index

Goldman Sachs strategist Timothy Moe is sticking with a 12,000 target for South Korea’s KOSPI index, even though it would need to rise by about 74% to get there. The forecast was set before the index dropped by a quarter.

Moe, the bank’s chief equity strategist for Asia Pacific, made the call three months ago and has not adjusted it. The price has moved, but his outlook has not.

The KOSPI Rally’s Abrupt Turn

The index remains near 6,899, up roughly 60% in 2026, despite falling about 24% from its June record high.

Two major stocks have driven most of the gains. SK Hynix is up around 157% year to date, and Samsung Electronics has risen 106%, more than doubling.

The journey has been far from smooth. July saw the biggest reversal, with a leveraged ETF unwind hitting Korean retail investors hard.

Leveraged funds tracking the two chipmakers recorded their first monthly outflow in August, losing close to $1 billion. Swings became so wide that Bitcoin (BTC) was calmer than the KOSPI for stretches of 2026.

Why Goldman Still Sees 12,000 for the KOSPI

Moe’s argument continues to hinge on earnings. He projects KOSPI members will post earnings growth of nearly 360% this year, cooling to about 35% in 2027.

“We’re still holding to it — it’s driven by what we think will be earnings delivery..The market is underpricing the duration of this earning cycle,” he said.

Valuation accounts for much of the rest. His 12,000 target is based on 7.5 times forward earnings. The index currently trades at 5.3 times, roughly half its seven-year average.

Demand fills out the picture. Moe estimates US Big Tech spending will exceed $1.2 trillion next year, well above earlier projections of around $800 billion.

Risks also run in the other direction. He points to Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, and potential political resistance to new data centers in the United States.

Execution remains the key question. Samsung and SK Hynix have reported strong quarterly results this year without much market response, so the upcoming earnings will determine whether profits alone can close a 74% gap.

Moe is not alone in buying the dip. Morgan Stanley upgraded Korea to overweight in early August, with a target of 9,000.