Hayes: AI IPO Dilution May Tighten Bank Credit, Weigh on Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes believes that post-listing share unlocks will dilute the stock of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. This could restrict AI credit and reduce bank balance sheets, which he previously credited for crypto's rebound in August.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) holders experience this via dollar liquidity, with credit created by banks rather than the Federal Reserve. He acknowledges, though, that the most recent weekly decline in bank balance sheets represents just one data point.

Why Do Bank Balance Sheets Link AI Stocks to Crypto?

Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and head of family office Maelstrom, presented his argument in a Nov. 5 newsletter. This follows a prior warning he issued about Bitcoin and balance sheets.

Banks provide AI funding, Hayes states, via loans, margin financing for stock traders, and purchases for their own portfolios.

Consequently, lower share prices would increase borrowing expenses for the labs, he contends, as debt buyers take cues from equity markets.

SpaceX's tradable shares have increased by 50% since their listing, although the stock has plateaued, according to Hayes.

Hayes estimates that Anthropic will face an 83% dilution by June 2027 following its planned IPO. He calculates that maintaining a flat price at a $1.5 trillion valuation would require approximately $1.245 trillion in new capital.

The company's revised IPO filing revealed a third-quarter operating loss of $567 million. Adjusted operating income, which excludes stock-based compensation and donation expenses, remained positive at $2.46 billion.

Is Arthur Hayes Early on the AI Bailout Trade?

Hayes anticipates that a credit scare will compel central banks to print money, a move he believes will benefit Bitcoin. He advises patience.

On the other hand, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal dismisses the debt worry. He notes that hyperscaler debt amounts to roughly 3.5% of those firms' market capitalization.

However, hyperscalers—the large cloud companies constructing AI data centers—represent a distinct group from the three labs that Hayes focuses on.

The newsletter states that Maelstrom advises Genlayer, an AI initiative gearing up for a token launch. It also lists Flop Network, an as-yet-unlaunched blockchain for AI computing, as a beneficiary.

In the previous month, Hayes sold off approximately $22.28 million worth of cryptocurrency and stated he would observe from the sidelines.

Anthropic's IPO will put to the test whether AI funding and crypto liquidity continue to rely on the same banking institutions.