Heavy disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping continues

The count of seven vessels is a decline from the 17 recorded on Wednesday and dips below the 10-day average of about 15 vessels.

Initial data from Kpler indicates that the seven vessels that passed through consisted of two medium-range tankers, one VLGC, one Ultramax, one intermediate tanker, and two chemical tankers. Four of those were observed exiting the strait, while the other three were entering.

Even with ongoing discussions and murmurs about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the actual traffic numbers continue to indicate severe disruption.

The US is still managing some backdoor initiatives to move oil through the waterway and out of the region. However, the longer this situation persists, the higher the chances of a more profound dislocation in the oil market.

Even though oil prices are stabilising around $80 to $90 currently, could that hold if the disruption continues for another three to six months?

The US strategy now appears to be to economically starve Iran. But after decades of sanctions and Iran's continued support from countries like Russia and China, that will be difficult. The question is whether the US truly wants to engage in an economic war on multiple fronts at this point.

Trump stated in March that the entire ordeal would be resolved in just "weeks." Now, six months later, there is no end in sight. It can be argued that no one is winning in this situation — not the US, not Iran, not the world.