Huang resignation shatters a year of Nvidia stock forecasts

Nvidia shares finished Thursday's trading session with a valuation $1.5 trillion lower than a month earlier, wiping out a year's worth of optimistic price calls from investors who had been misled by the company's artificial intelligence promise.

Most of those who predicted big gains are hoping for a turnaround. Chief Executive Jensen Huang stepped down after confessing to two extramarital relationships, one involving a Chinese partner who runs a business reportedly tied to smuggling chips under export controls for the benefit of the Chinese Communist Party.

In August, Motley Fool writer John Bromels stated, “I’m predicting a $6 trillion market cap for Nvidia by the end of the year,” with Keithen Drury echoing that forecast.

The chipmaker has actually fallen from $5.5 trillion to $4 trillion over the last month.

Optimism reigned among traders. In October, options markets suggested roughly a two-in-three chance that Nvidia would reach $6 trillion by December 18. That now appears unlikely.

On Polymarket, the probability of Nvidia ending 2026 as the world's most valuable company dropped from an extreme 89% on October 6 to just 11% currently. For perspective, Nvidia now ranks second globally by market value, only slightly ahead of Microsoft.

Altimeter founder Brad Gerstner had even loftier ambitions. In May, Gerstner said, “I think Nvidia will be the first $10 trillion company.” That target would require a market valuation 2.5 times today's level.

As shareholders absorbed the negative news, Nvidia's common stock, NVDA, has fallen 8% this week and 26% over the past month.

The Nasdaq-listed shares now trade at $166, down 30% from their October 6 closing peak. The downturn has stranded countless forecasts made during 2026.

Bought some $Goog and $NVDA today — two exceptional companies with exceptional leadership and exceptional products. pic.twitter.com/VhWjsDNr3v

— @jason (@Jason) October 30, 2026

‘I’m long NVDA and just bought more!’

Social media pundits put forward unrealistic projections. Nick Dorsey set his year-end price target for Nvidia at $285 back in January. In June, Milk Road’s Kyle Reidhead forecast “$NVDA to $300+ by the end of the year.” Reaching $300 now would require an 80% surge within six weeks.

Cole’s Trades declared, “$NVDA will be a $250 stock by end of year” in July. In September, John Trades MBA predicted $250 per share.

Some went even further. One trader named $450 as a 2026 year-end target, while Marcos Milla maintained on October 21 that NVDA would become “a $400 stock”.

Certain deadlines have already passed in humiliation. Peter DiCarlo predicted “$250 by end of August,” in June. It did not happen. Nvidia ended August at $220.78 instead.

Jason Calacanis purchased Nvidia in late October. On Wednesday evening, just before Nvidia announced Huang's departure, he posted, “I’m long NVDA and just bought more!” Thursday's decline deepened his already unprofitable position.

Short-seller called Nvidia top by not trusting Jensen Huang

Read more: How Alice Huang helped Nvidia with Chinese export restrictions

Wall Street was way off on Nvidia predictions

Professional equity analysts have been equally embarrassed by NVDA's slump this month.

Baird previously had a $500 price target before cutting it to $200 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Evercore ISI reduced its target from $465 to $186 per share, and Bernstein halved $400 to $200. Melius, which had maintained hopes of $420 per share until November 2, trimmed to $185.

Other firms followed suit. Goldman Sachs lowered its target to $220, Citi moved to $225 and JPMorgan went to $215. RBC settled on $230 and Stifel chose $205, while Needham landed at $200 with DA Davidson matching.

Cantor Fitzgerald cut to $250, Bank of America reduced to $280, and Rosenblatt lowered its 12-month target from $390 to $300.

Analyst Dan Ives valued the company by excluding its founder. He stated, “We see the stock valuation at $225 without Jensen.”

Raymond James’ Simon Leopold has not changed his view. Late Wednesday, he maintained a 12-month $515 target, describing the risk to fundamentals as modest. When he set it in August, that level implied a $12.4 trillion valuation. The stock now needs to triple.

Jim Cramer, who long urged viewers to keep the shares rather than trade them, acknowledged, “It’s very sobering.”

Bettors have taken note. Polymarket participants now assign single-digit odds to Nvidia reaching $6 trillion by year-end, and much higher odds of 41% that it finishes below $4 trillion.