Internet Computer (ICP) Holders Confront Two Opposing Signals: Breakdown or Base?

Internet Computer (ICP) keeps pulling in more new addresses even as the token’s price slides. Daily new-address creation has climbed roughly 45% from its summer figure, while ICP has dropped 8.29% over the last month.

Holders are therefore left to weigh two signals pointing in opposite directions. Analysts are split, however, on whether the chart signals a breakdown or a base.

Internet Computer Network Activity Rebounds From Summer Slump

On Santiment’s numbers, Internet Computer’s median daily active addresses rose about 35% to 3,860 from September 22 to October 21. The comparable figure was 2,838 in the July 24-August 22 stretch.

“The October highs are spiky. Oct 14 and Oct 21 each topped 7,400, while 16 of the month’s 21 days landed between 3,100 and 4,300,” the team said.

Fresh addresses increased even more quickly across those same periods, with the daily median up about 45% to 710 from 481.

Santiment observed that network activity is once again close to the range seen in the first quarter. Even so, it remains about half of the level seen in early November 2025, when the busiest week averaged around 9,500 addresses.

BeInCrypto reported that the peak coincided with a 166% weekly rally to $7.80 after the Caffeine AI launch. The token now changes hands at $2.78, roughly 64% beneath that mark.

The latest decline is being interpreted very differently by analysts.

Neckline Break Sets Up $2.40 as a Target

According to analyst nordin.eth, ICP has slipped beneath the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation on the 4-hour chart.

“The head and shoulders is now playing out, and price is trading below the neckline. $2.40 is the potential target,” the post read.

At the present price, that objective is roughly 14% lower. nordin.eth added that a return above the neckline, in the $2.85 area, could rapidly change the outlook.

Bulls Identify a Weekly Floor

The same area is viewed by other analysts as a potential floor, including Giannis Andreou.

“ICP is forming a tentative weekly base, with $2.6–$2.8 as immediate support,” Andreou noted.

ICP is now trading within that support band. In Andreou’s view, a sustained return to the $3.30-to-$3.60 zone would bring $4 to $4.50 into view, with $5 to $6.50 after that.

Andreou also defined a clear downside trigger. A weekly close beneath $2.50 would undermine the structure and open up $2 to $2.20.

On October 20, with ICP near $2.89, trader Nebraskangooner pointed to trendline support. He said a bounce from that level was necessary, and ICP has fallen about 4% since.

$ICP

Notably at lower limit support. Needs to bounce here.

Structurally, needs to reclaim these local highs for a breakout and a chance of local structure on daily/weekly. Above that and it could have room to run.

Interesting spot it's at right now though.

— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) October 20, 2026

The $2.50 to $2.85 band is now the key range for holders. BeInCrypto reported that CME FedWatch data gives an 80.5% probability of a higher Fed target range by December 9. A more restrictive policy could add to the pressure on an already falling crypto market.

Which side of the range yields first may hinge on whether the increase in network activity becomes buying demand.