Iran awaits US final reply via Qatar by Tuesday, minister says

Oil traders now have a near-term catalyst from the Tuesday deadline mentioned by Iran, compressing headline risk into a short period. The description of mediation as more serious offers some support for those assessing the chances of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the signal is mixed given that Tehran has not specified its demands and Washington has publicly disputed the notion of sanctions relief. Crude prices have moved in both directions with each diplomatic headline, a trend likely to persist until the US response narrows or widens the differences over sequencing.

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Earlier:

• Araqchi: Iran discussed ideas with Qatari mediators, Hormuz conditions must be met
• Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief, calls Axios report a hoax

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According to Iran, mediation via Qatar and Pakistan has become more serious after Tehran put forward a plan, and it hopes to receive the US final response by Tuesday.

Key points:

• Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, stated that he expects the US final reply via Qatari mediators by Tuesday, as reported by IRNA.
• Araqchi mentioned that Tehran and Qatari mediators discussed ways to meet Iran's demands, and the mediators will convey those ideas to the US.
• According to Araqchi, the mediation channels through Qatar and Pakistan have become more serious since Iran submitted a plan.
• These comments come after earlier statements that the US reply would be delivered through Qatar and that the Supreme Leader's conditions must be met for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
• The reports did not elaborate on the ideas or conditions.

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi added that he hopes to get the US final response via Qatari mediators by Tuesday, according to IRNA news agency. These comments expand on earlier IRNA reports in which Araqchi said Tehran discussed ideas with mediators to present to Washington, and that the Supreme Leader's conditions must be fulfilled for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.

Araqchi stated that Iran and Qatari mediators discussed ways to implement those conditions, and the mediators will present the ideas to the US. He also noted that mediation through Qatar and Pakistan has become more serious after Iran put forward a plan. The reports did not provide details on the ideas or conditions.

These remarks follow a weekend when US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait. US UN Ambassador Mike Waltz said Trump declined the proposal because it demanded immediate sanctions relief and frozen assets release. According to an official cited by Reuters, Qatari mediators were expected to hold separate talks with Iran and the US on Monday or Tuesday, centering on a revised version of a seven-day proposal that Tehran submitted last week.

On Monday, Axios reported, citing US officials, that Trump was open to providing sanctions relief and releasing frozen assets in exchange for tangible nuclear progress, and a US official characterized the indirect talks as positive and constructive while noting remaining differences over timing and sequencing. Trump later responded on Truth Social, denying any offer to Iran and labeling the Axios report a hoax.

Oil prices moved on diplomatic headlines throughout Monday. Brent crude ended near $105 per barrel after an initial gain of over $4 receded, and earlier speculation about sanctions relief had been accompanied by lower crude. Middle East exports have rebounded in recent weeks, but strait flows are still below pre-conflict levels.

Market focus now shifts to whether the US response arrives by Tuesday as Araqchi hopes, and whether mediators can reduce the differences before Iran's conditions for reopening the strait are put to the test.