Iran headlines are meeting election-calendar skepticism, and Tehran's security chief says Hormuz will reopen only if seven conditions are met.
Fresh headlines are coming through that point to progress in the Iran-US talks. Al-Arabiya is now running items much like the earlier reports that pressured oil.
By contrast, Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, had this to say moments ago:
"America's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened."
Those are the same seven conditions that have long been under discussion, and most of them were part of the 14-point MOU agreed in June.
The difficulty in judging the prospects for a deal is the calendar. The Trump administration has an incentive to leak favorable Iran headlines this week as a way of pushing oil prices lower. That may be too little, too late, yet it is a reason for skepticism. Negotiating positions are also very far apart, though real mediation efforts are clearly under way.
Oil has been regaining ground on that same skepticism and on Rezaei's latest remarks, and it is now close to flat.
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Markets are pricing in an end to the Iran war: WTI fell $7.69 to $88.39. Hurdles to a deal remain, but reports suggest an agreement may be on the table.