Ives Sees Robotaxis and Optimus Fueling Tesla's Golden Year in 2027

Yorkville Ives & Co.'s Dan Ives sees robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot as the drivers that could turn 2027 into Tesla's best year yet. His argument depends on ventures that are still unproven.

Tesla (TSLA) delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, topping analyst forecasts. The Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 98% of that total. According to Ives, the stock's current valuation reflects expectations for future developments.

What Could Turn 2027 Into Tesla's Golden Year?

Speaking to CNBC, Ives noted that demand is firming up, aided by a recovery in Europe following a multi-year drop. He added that the high-priced Cybertruck is unlikely to significantly boost overall demand.

Ives expects robotaxis — autonomous ride-hailing vehicles — to expand into additional cities in early to mid-2027. He stated that regulatory hurdles have held back deployment to date.

The Optimus humanoid robot is slated to arrive in the latter half of 2027, according to Ives. He sees both robotaxis and Optimus as part of Tesla's transition from an EV manufacturer into an AI firm.

“And that’s why 2027 I think could be a golden year for Tesla.”

Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives & Co., via CNBC

Ives also places the likelihood of a Tesla and SpaceX merger at over 80% by late 2027.

Has Tesla's Stock Price Already Priced in the AI Benefits?

By contrast, Wells Fargo's Colin Langan maintained an Underweight rating on Tesla in July, which is the equivalent of a sell. His price target of $130 was roughly 67% below the stock's then level of about $396.

Langan anticipates that price reductions and higher raw material costs, such as for copper and lithium, will eat into the margins from increased sales.

Ives, on the other hand, contends that the AI trade is still in its early stages, pointing to chip demand outpacing supply by a 13-to-1 ratio.

The broader question for the market is how long investors will continue to back AI ventures before autonomous vehicles and robots begin generating income. Tesla's quarterly earnings release on Oct. 21 will offer updated insight into automotive margins.