James Lavish Sees Bitcoin at $400K–$500K by Mid-2029

James Lavish told BMTV last month that he thinks the market has hit a bottom, and he maintains that cycle call remains valid after expectations for a rate hike increased and technology stocks became volatile. He links Bitcoin's peaks to the halving, the four-year election cycle, and the broader economic cycle, which according to his model still suggests a high in mid-2029. Examining the power law, he indicates that a one-standard-deviation move above the mean would align with the $400,000 to $500,000 range, and that he “would be absolutely shocked” if Bitcoin were not in the $200,000 to $300,000 range by then. He is not dismissing his cycle analysis because of short-term rate concerns.

Chapters:
00:00 Fiscal Dominance and the $2 Trillion Deficit
01:51 The Fed Balance Sheet Is Growing Again
03:07 Hot CPI and a Near-Certain December Hike
05:23 Bitcoin Trades on Short-Term Interest Rates
06:35 The Fed Can’t Print Oil or Fix Home Prices
08:34 When the Fed Called Uncle in 2018 and 2022
11:11 A December Hike and Possibly 50 Basis Points
12:47 Treasury’s Quasi-Twist and $13 Trillion to Refinance
15:08 Why Bitcoin and Gold Are Struggling This Cycle
17:33 JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Beats Stocks, Bonds, and Gold
19:42 From Career Risk to a Risk Not to Have Any
22:18 The Cycle Still Points to a Mid-2029 High

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.