Timmer Questions 60/40 Portfolio Revival Amid Weakening Stock-Bond Link
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer questions the 60/40 portfolio comeback as higher Treasury yields sustain a positive stock-bond correlation.
Gold fell and oil rose on US election day as job openings jumped and markets reacted to a US-Iran deal report.
Market snapshot:
The trading session opened on a report that the US and Iran were nearing an agreement, which sent crude oil prices tumbling. A denial from a senior Iranian official on Twitter a few hours later reversed that move, lifting WTI from a low of $93.59 to end the day at $96.91. The dollar gained strength on the back of this volatility, notably in the USD/JPY pair. The Australian dollar traded under pressure after the RBA raised its benchmark rate for the fifth time this year.
The JOLTS data was a positive read for the dollar. Factory orders also printed slightly ahead of expectations. However, these figures did not drive the initial market moves. Attention is expected to return to the economic calendar later in the week once the midterm election results are clearer, with the non-farm payrolls number coming up.
US technology stocks saw some buying interest, with AMD shares rallying in extended trading for a rare positive note. The Nasdaq composite managed a 0.8% gain, snapping a three-day losing streak that included a sharp reversal on Tuesday. Apple ended the session 1.9% lower in the wake of its earnings release.
The first US midterm election results are set to emerge around 7 pm ET. The race will be complex to interpret early on, as regional issues like tariffs and unusual candidates in several Senate races mean the initial results may not illustrate the national mood. The overall market trend after midterm elections is historically positive, and November is usually a strong month for equities.
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Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer questions the 60/40 portfolio comeback as higher Treasury yields sustain a positive stock-bond correlation.
The Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4% on Thursday, its first hike of this cycle, with inflation at 3.5%.
Japan's services PMI rose to 51.7 in October, but the composite PMI slipped to 52.1, a five-month low, as hiring slowed and cost pressures persisted.
September data showed Australia's goods surplus at about A$2.8 billion, a seven-month peak, with LNG and metals exports up and gold imports down sharply.